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Windows 8: Dying gasp or next big thing?

By Tim Ferguson, silicon.com on October 9th, 2009

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azure, cloud, windows

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Just as the marketing hype around Windows 7 heads towards its peak, a few details are starting to surface about its likely successor.

You may groan but work on Windows 8, as Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has referred to it, is already underway.

The next generation of Windows is unlikely to appear for a few years — probably by 2012 — but Microsoft is working on what comes next, even before Windows 7 hits the shelves.

Ballmer for one has implied there is still more to come. "In a sense there's still a lot of work to do [with the operating system]," he said recently in London.

The company remains tight-lipped about the work being done but Ballmer has suggested that improved management and voice recognition are development priorities. There is also speculation that it may feature a 128-bit architecture.

Clive Longbottom, analyst with Quocirca, predicts virtualisation will feature more prominently with Windows 8. He said: "With Citrix, VMware and Microsoft all looking at how to give the ultimate experience to the user, expect to see virtualisation within the OS providing enhanced support for virtual desktops, for streaming applications, for access to applications when untethered and unconnected to the internet and so on."

He added that Windows 8 could be "a big step forwards towards being a unified client operating system" with Windows Mobile, Windows Embedded and Windows Client all becoming more aligned in terms of their release schedule.

Despite these potential additions, Longbottom suggests businesses won't necessarily be looking for a big shift with Windows 8 as they generally just want an OS that allows people to do their work while also helping to save money and time, extend the life of assets and provide better support for business processes.

One likely scenario is that Windows 8 will be an incremental improvement on Windows 7. Jonathan Yarmis, research fellow at Ovum, predicts technology such as 3D and gesture recognition could make an appearance — but these may be little more than Windows dressing.

As for Ballmer's comments that voice recognition will be a more-developed feature of Windows 8, Yarmis feels it will be a feature that only a handful of businesses will have been crying out for. "In terms of exciting new vistas so to speak, I just don't see it," he said.

There is the chance that Windows 8 could mark the end of the line for the pure packaged OS as the technology world moves irrevocably away from packaged software towards online platforms.

Yarmis suggests Windows 8 might be lucky to even make it to the shelves. "It wouldn't surprise me if we never see a product called Windows 8," he said.

With Google's web-based Chrome operating system likely to have gained further momentum by the time Windows 8 emerges, Yarmis suggested Microsoft will be focusing more on pushing a similarly internet-based technology.

He said: "If you were designing a new modern operating system from the ground up it probably wouldn't look architecturally at all anything like Windows — you'd want to support lots of different device form factors, you'd want it to be net-centric from the beginning, things like that."

"If you're thinking of Windows 8's time frame being two-plus years from now, [Microsoft had] darn well better have [its] net-centric client side platform in a similar state of deployment readiness. So I think Windows 8 goes side by side at the very least with a net-centric."

In a similar vein, Quocirca's Longbottom suggests that with Windows 8, Microsoft will increasingly have to demonstrate the value of a client operating system. "Microsoft has to somehow tie the client OS into the cloud, making a Windows-based experience better than any other," he explained.

He added that Microsoft is likely to integrate its work around the Azure cloud platform into the desktop environment.

And for some, the whole idea of a desktop OS may have had its day.

As Yarmis says: "The bottom line is I can't get excited particularly about Windows 7 let alone Windows 8. This is kind of the dying gasps of a desktop-centric operating system."

This article was originally posted on Silicon.com.

Talkback

All opinions!

Any cloud relies on being online all the time, which is NOT guaranteed.

For all users it is about where is the most appropriate location for the master data. That will be dependent upon the importance and confidentiality of the data.

Pure cloud (that is, totally web) is a risk, but more to some than others.

I think that somewhere in the middle is the balance, allowing the user to choose the best location for data, rather than the topology mandating it.

If MS integrates cloud functionality well, while still improving the usabiity and lowering the footprint of the OS, they will still be in the market.

Most non-business users will probably go more for cloud, as their usage is less critical.

As for what we would have if OSs are being built from scratch: difinitely ditch the 40year old architectures of *nix and Windows. Try EAL7-level secure computing streams with QoS, TBs of non-volatile memory for instant on and running, and programming environments where a typo cannot break a whole program's structure.

PatanjaliPatanjali October 9th, 2009
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Virtualisation is the future!!

There is potential for further work on virtualisation. They could rewrite the core for better efficiency, security etc and use VMs to run applications in various OSs for backwards compatibility and for isolation of applications from the core. Of course you can do this already to some extent in Windows 7 but more work is required to make this seamless to the user and to get around their own archaic licensing restrictions.

I'm already taking advantage of XP Mode in W7 to install apps like HP scanning/printing software that I only use occasionally. I prefer not to install it directly as it is a real resource hog and insists on loading at startup.

xBeaniexBeanie October 9th, 2009
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Not likely to be the last

Just like the paperless office, the non-OS desktop simply will never happen

jeffjeff October 9th, 2009
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Very true

Agreed. something on the machine still has to provide a GUI, connect to a LAN or Internet, manage printers, local storage devices and run the things that will simply always work better on the local machine, particularly things that are heavy on resources like CAD and Photoshop.

As for the paperless office, well, the humble computer has doubled the amount of paper we use. Filing cabinet manufacturers have never had it so good.

Mel SommersbergMel Sommersberg October 9th, 2009
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Everything old is new again

Hmmm... clients are becoming more powerful and cheaper. Therefore everything will move to the cloud...

I personally feel that things will come full circle. Not to say there isn't a place for cloud computing, but not what people make out it will be.

With mobile devices becoming more powerful I think programs will become more client centric, providing a far richer and faster environment, merely gaining their information and updates through the net. The difference between Net and Local applications will continue to disolve, but a far greater % will run locally.

I also think enterprises will similarly take things back out to the client as hardware becomes ever more powerful and Windows ever easier to customise (and enforce) remotely. Virtualisation of programs - yes. Virtualisation of desktops (like Citrix and other thin clients) - no, I think they have had their day. They are more of a headache to maintain and SLOWER than thick clients as of right now.

The idea that people wan't all their software running somewhere else belongs to the days where hardware was slower, more expensive and when people had trust in the security of the internet.

PhilipPhilip October 9th, 2009
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Vista 3

"One likely scenario is that Windows 8 will be an incremental improvement on Windows 7"

Pretty well sums it up. Some new device drivers and possibly support for larger disk arrays (128bit addressing) at the server. Interface tweaks and a new version of directX. Some more group policies and of course it will be the most secure version of windows ever.

Given the XP to Vista development process we have to be realistic about what Microsoft can actually deliver in two years. Something like the change from Win98 to WinME.

BruceBruce October 12th, 2009
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And a new improved GUI

The next version will have a new and improved GUI that is as a result of "extensive" user feedback.

stevesteve October 13th, 2009
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All Flavours should be a Web Client & Server ...

The Client OS has had its day. It needs to be a web browser, like the Chrome OS. Windows 8 should contain a client and server OS on the same box.

You should be able to run the client independently and connect to the web - or run the server service and connect to your "local web services".

All other systems should be virtualised - so we can seamlessly run DOS, Windows, Mac, Linux (and OS/2) apps together...

...if only it were a perfect world.

Gavin BollardGavin Bollard October 13th, 2009
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Stay out from under a cloud

Here's some thoughts -
If I pay for something, I want to own it and have it in my home and on my machine
Internet availability - and therefore OS availability - is only as good as our ISP. And no ISP has a 100% availability rates.
I don't want to always have to work on line
I work from home - the first time my OS is unavailable because of ISP or MS network issues, I will be sueing both for loss of earnings.
I'm just stunned at the arrogance of software vendors like MS in thinking they understand the working preferences and patterns of ALL users, and that they can legitimately modify our working behaviours. IT vendor as social engineer - shudder !!!!

Robert HoarRobert Hoar October 23rd, 2009
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