But Microsoft, because of its market dominance, may be disproportionately affected. LeTocq said Office's market share is "in the low nineties in the US, and in the eighties most everywhere else."
"If you take the market in China, yes, Microsoft probably is disproportionately taking the brunt of the piracy problem because it is the dominant player there," said Peter Beruk, the SIIA's vice president of antipiracy.
This could mean Microsoft's piracy rate is much higher in many markets, and well above the 36 percent worldwide average. The company would also face higher losses -- and on its most profitable product line.
"It does seem to make sense that the popularity of Office would increase the piracy rate," said Microsoft corporate attorney, Tom Cranton. "I can't tell you from an informed perspective. All I can tell you is, yeah, certainly that is something you would want to consider when looking at the piracy rates."
But such untapped revenue has proved elusive for Microsoft and potentially more difficult to mine, given the North American high-tech sales crisis. Microsoft's activation technology, for as long as it stays ahead of the pirates, could be an important tool to fight piracy in China and other burgeoning markets, Lucier said. A move to subscription-based computing could have an even greater effect. "Obviously, it's a great way to expand their revenues," he said. "If you can turn just 10 percent of their losses into China legitimate sales, you obviously have significant revenues there."
But some analysts warn that Microsoft could kill the golden goose while trying to minimise losses.
"In the Chinese market, they're very sensitive that Microsoft is a tool of US nationalism, and here is an approach that may give them reason to stick with generating illegal copies of Office 2000," LeTocq said.
China and other growth markets also could switch to competing products, such as Sun Microsystems' StarOffice. "It's free and also comes in a Linux version, which might appeal to the Chinese," LeTocq added Microsoft's bigger challenge may be rustling Office sales on its home turf, North America, where it faces competition not only from piracy, but from older versions of Office.
Tom Bailey, lead product manager for Office XP, estimates that as much as 60 percent of Office users have stuck with a version older than Office 2000.
1%
8%
