A big party
It wasn't long ago that release to manufacturing--or RTM--was an insider non-event. The real fireworks and celebration were reserved for ceremonies marking the commercial release of new Windows versions, such as the launch of Windows 95 six years ago. That extravaganza was marked by appearances from celebrities including Jay Leno and by Microsoft's licensing of the Rolling Stones song "Start Me Up."
Microsoft executives have said the final tally for Windows XP's launch will double what the company spent to launch Windows 95. The company has not disclosed details of a second celebration planned for Oct. 25, this time to mark the commercial release of Windows XP.
For Microsoft, Windows XP--perhaps more than any other operating system release--is a turning point in the company's future, analysts say. Branded a monopoly, struggling against competition from older Windows versions, and preparing to jump into the world of Web services, Microsoft is pushing XP into an uncertain environment.
Turning the release of gold masters to PC makers into a photo op only signifies how much Microsoft and its partners have riding on the new operating system.
Changing trends
The ceremony also signifies a significant change in style. Microsoft typically holds a single lavish event for a product's official launch--in the case of Windows XP, Oct. 25. But that date only signifies the software's commercial release to consumers. Now, all-important PC makers, which will sell the bulk of Windows XP pre-loaded on computers, loom larger in Microsoft's financial picture.
"In the past, launch date was everything," said Guernsey Research analyst Chris LeTocq. "But frankly, retail matters a lot less to Microsoft now."
Since PC makers can begin selling Windows XP systems starting Sept. 24, Friday's event is more than symbolic, Rosoff said. "Everyone is counting on Windows XP to revitalize this industry, so the (PC makers) have a reason to participate in this kind of event."
The timing of the commemorative code hand-off is not accidental and follows a straight line to launch--Aug. 24, RTM; Sept. 24, new XP PCs; Oct. 25, retail launch--LeTocq said.
"When Microsoft talked about the US$200 million investment, they wanted to get the word going that this is not just another OS," he said. "They're fighting the perception this is just another OS and have developed a clear marketing approach from RTM to delivery."
But just another version of Windows is exactly how many people may view XP, said IDC's Gillen.
"XP has a lot of interesting features, but I don't think it's going to be perceived as an important upgrade because people are going to have to purchase new hardware," he explained. "Because of that, people are not going to be running out to buy XP for their old (Pentium) 500 systems. As a result, it's going to be hard to get quite as excited as it was about the Windows 95 launch."
This also explains some of the emphasis on PC makers and why Microsoft has turned giving them RTM code into a big event. With computer sales at record lows, "it is important to get the buzz out there as early as possible," LeTocq said.
Still, Microsoft is hoping for big interest in upgrades, which is one reason Windows XP's real launch--the one in October--centres on retail. But the challenge there is convincing people they need to upgrade, particularly from older consumer Windows versions.
"Microsoft's competition is the installed base, so they must convince people there is enough reason there to upgrade from older versions of Windows," LeTocq said.
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