COMMENTARY--What do we need in a new operating system? The next version of the Microsoft Windows desktop is supposed to answer that question.

Codenamed "Longhorn," the software is expected sometime in 2004 (probably later than earlier); Microsoft won't yet commit to a specific target date. But that schedule's already looking ambitious.

Microsoft has been very quiet about what precisely Longhorn will be about. I think, based on insider discussions, I know some of what it's supposed to include. But the official silence is a cause for concern. But we know enough to say that Longhorn is already a small failure; the possibility of a big failure looms.

The small failure that's already become apparent: After a decade spent move its consumer, business, and server operating systems onto a single code-base (XP), Longhorn will not immediately result in a new server OS.

The last time Microsoft found itself in a similar position (committed to getting an operating system out the door, yet needing more time), we ended up with the creature better known as Windows Millennium Edition. That OS escaped from Microsoft--I still can't believe it was actually released-- seemingly because Redmond needed a new operating system to sell and Windows XP was running well behind schedule.

I seriously hope Microsoft doesn't release Longhorn until it's really ready, with something like a full feature set that improves on what we're using today. Here's some of what I think a "ready" Longhorn will include--even if I don't know when "ready" will be:

Palladium: Microsoft doesn't seem very interested in making our current versions of XP significantly more secure, waiting instead for the next OS to begin implementation of its vision of "trustworthy computing." Since the desktop component of this trustworthiness--called Palladium--also requires new hardware, Longhorn seems to be the first opportunity to bring it to market.
Rights management: Palladium was originally intended to be a rights management system, and that specific piece is so important, I want to call it out. Whether we do or don't get real trustworthiness with Longhorn, we must have a solution to rights management issues. However, this is as much a matter for the Congress and courts as it is for technology people. So absolutely anything could happen--including some scary stuff requiring new copy-protection chips to be added to PC hardware.
Media Player 9: This is the new version of Media Player, implementing some new codec's that bring higher-quality video and sound from less bandwidth/smaller file sizes. This is also Microsoft's play toward creating a new standard for encoding the content on commercial DVDs.
A new file system: Microsoft has already said it's working on a new file system that essentially treats everything on your computer as entries in a database. The goal is to make it easier for applications to share information. But building what's known as the "Object File System" is a non-trivial task. In fact, Microsoft has already spent parts of two decades building it. Latest word is OFS will be part of Longhorn--but we must wait and see.
eHome: I'm expecting features that expand on the current Media Center version of XP to be included in home versions of Longhorn. Microsoft has talked about distributing content wirelessly throughout the home, a concept that requires both operating system support and new devices to bring wireless capabilities to consumer electronics. Some of this will almost certainly arrive with Longhorn--along, I suspect, with some refinement to the current Media Center applications. About the same time as Longhorn's launch, I expect most mid-range home PCs (and above) will start including Media Center features.
Smart Display: Making Smart Display useful requires some new operating system features that support the use of a removable display that can be carried around a home or office. I want to mention this because I expect it will happen with Longhorn, but I am not yet able to talk specifics.

There's a lot more that will probably show up in Longhorn, including user interface changes and improvements to the "experiences" (such as music and digital photography) introduced in Windows XP. But, so far, Microsoft hasn't said very much about them.

Microsoft needs to start taking about its goals for Longhorn, even if there is no shipping date and some of the features may or may not make it to the final product. At the same time, however, Microsoft must also promise us that Longhorn won't replay the Windows Me experience--an OS that was clearly not ready to ship. We need a quality OS, not one that meets someone's shipping schedule.