When people say "the world is getting smaller", sometimes it's not just a euphemism; they mean it literally. Take the CPU, for example. Intel's Mobile Pentium III-M processors are hardly the next generation in performance but they certainly mark the state of the art for blade servers and portables. The 0.13-micron CPU can operate between 1.4 and 0.95 volts, depending on the flavour of the processor in question. And as we move toward 0.10 micron (and smaller) technology, we can expect CPUs to cling to the lower end of that voltage range.
IDE is also feeling the pressure to tighten its belt. For all the advances that have been made in spindle speed, platter density, head technology and interface design, essentially, the electronics behind it still require 5 volts (mechanical bits can require more). As Intel continues to downsize its product line and power requirements decrease, the idea of having enough extra voltage around to fry a system is about as welcome as a barbecue in a petrol station. And the size of the connection required to support 5 volts could, easily, be larger than the actual chip area.
While technologists can already accommodate miniature form-factors, cramming 2.5-inch drives into portables, controlling IDE's appetite for voltage is a work in progress. However, after an hour-long discussion with Lorne Wilson, vice president, channel sales and marketing, and Chuck Nielsen, chief technologist of the hard disk group, both at California-based Fujitsu Computer Products of America (FCPA), it became apparent that a final product is imminent. It will take the shape of a 2.5-inch serial ATA drive.
"First-generation serial ATA will start at 150 Mbytes per second," says Wilson, noting that you can fit four 2.5-inch serial ATA drives in the same physical space as one 3.5-inch IDE drive.
Size certainly does matter--and, as if to prove it, FCPA withdrew from the 3.5-inch IDE desktop market during the third quarter of 2001 to concentrate on the mobile and enterprise segments. (Worldwide, FCPA is rated the second largest manufacturer for the enterprise segment, ahead of IBM.) Nielsen added that the 6-pin point-to-point serial interface--one drive and one interface, rather than the two drives that parallel the IDE interface allows or the 15 permitted by SCSI--will operate at 500 milli-volts peak-to-peak.
All of that sounds reasonable. However, for those of us who were born the day before yesterday, 8 bits delivered simultaneously (as in parallel technologies such as IDE and SCSI) will be faster than 1 bit delivered 8 times, the method proposed by Serial ATA. While the proposed initial 150Mb/s serial ATA interface is technically faster than the IDE ATA/133 standard on the horizon, serial ATA pales in comparison to 320Mb/s SCSI. Or does it?
"[SCSI] speed is divided by the number of active devices on the cable. As well, there are always additional issues when mounting multiple devices on a single cable. Because serial ATA is point to point, the potential is always for 150Mb/s," said Nielsen.
Small size, low voltage, adequate capacity (110G is expected within the next month or so), and speed--form a winning combination. What's missing so far is any mention of cost. Emerging technologies are always expensive initially. According to FCPA's Wilson, serial ATA will never approach the price of current-day SCSI systems. He claims that unit costs of serial ATA drives should be equivalent to current parallel ATA drives by next year, and should begin to dip somewhat afterwards.
You're probably not going to have the option of procrastinating the way you do with operating system upgrades. (First-generation serial ATA drives will be transparent to the operating system, so procrastination won't even be a viable excuse.) One day in the late '80s we went to sleep with 5.25-inch MFM drives and woke the next morning to a 3.5-inch RLL IDE world. Get your ducats in a row now. Serial ATA is next.
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