However, the pragmatism which currently pervades the industry is set to continue.
Alan Greig, CEO of Prophecy International sums up the mood of the Australian IT sector as we approach 2003.
"Growth will come from sectors that can provide useful benefits from a business point of view. Technology won't be used for technology's sake," Greig says. "Broadband, wireless applications and Web enabled Java technology will see the greatest growth as they continue to provide increasingly valuable business benefits."
Similarly, Microsoft's director for small and medium business, Mark Iles, is tipping technologies which enable tighter integration between different business applications will come to the fore.
"The continuing drive to reduce business costs and improve productivity will lead to strong demand for XML integration processes and applications over the next few years," Iles says. "Almost every company is looking at tighter integration between their business functions, and demand for both software and services for this area is likely to grow significantly."
Along with growth in the wireless arena, Iles is tipping an Internet revival, as broadband becomes more accessible, and small to medium businesses once again look to the Web.
Wild about wireless
Despite continuing to be dogged by security concerns, 2003 looks like becoming the year of living "wirelessly".
While this could only be good news for wireless resellers such as Ross Chiswell, managing director of Integrity Data Systems, he is taking the upturn cautiously.
"Increased competition in the Wireless LAN market will get even worse next year for cheap or basic connectivity products," Chiswell says. "The channel needs to understand how to sell outdoor (wireless) links on return-on-investment benefit for clients, not on technology or bandwidth."
However, wireless technology is only one of a raft of new interfaces which will gain a foothold in 2003. While most pundits believe spending in the IT sector will grow, albeit slowly, there is always room for more gadgets, with larger vendors such as Microsoft and Toshiba looking to new computing interfaces to drive the market.
"ADSL and Wi-Fi networking will begin replacing 56kb modems in multiple PC households, notebook computers will become more the norm than desktops as lifestyles become more mobile and apartment based," says Ralph Stadus, Toshiba Australia's general manager. "The expansion of digital photography will gather pace, and the notebook will become a portable digital darkroom, photo album and slide projector."
Paul Magee, managing director of VeCommerce, predictably says speech recognition technology will form a key pillar of the next generation of computer interfaces.
"Speaker verification technology will become increasingly attractive to a variety of industries as well as government departments seeking to stamp out fraud with dial-in customers," Magee says.
The CRM contention
Big enterprise databases are already shaping up as a key market to watch during 2003 - with the industry divided as to their fortunes.
While high-level provision of enterprise resource planning and management software is tipped to slow, Derek Rippingale, joint managing director of integrator Professional Advantage, believes the technology will experience growth in the mid-market. Meanwhile the market is awaiting Microsoft's entry to the market, with a promised customer resource management (CRM) system due sometime in 2003.
"CRM is a software system designed to enhance business processes, we will see systems aims at the SME market and these will build on existing technologies," explained John Thompson, managing director of CRM integrator Point Australia. "It will be interesting to see what impact Microsoft's entry onto the market has on the industry."
Interestingly, Danny Sargeant, managing director of outsourcing and services company Getronics believes specialist CRM providers will be among the worst performers of 2003, as the technology moves into the broader mid-range market. Similarly Gerard Florian, chief technology officer of networking powerhouse Dimension Data expects enterprise applications such as ERP and CRM to perform badly throughout 2003.
Connectivity's the key
Web services, mobile data services, portals, e-learning, the trend is clear - 2003 will largely be characterised by companies of all sizes looking for new and ever more efficient ways to get connected.
In the words of Getronics' Sargeant; "There is a desperate need for Australia to see a rapid extension and adoption of broadband technology."
While the last quarter of 2002 has been characterised by the mushrooming of broadband providers and the increasing availability of bandwidth, the industry has yet to demonstrate levels of demand to support such growth.
Phil Sykes, chief executive officer of Request Broadband, believes 2003 will see significant consolidation amongst the tier 2 and 3 Telcos, driven mostly by a need to develop economies of scale.
"A consolidated entity build upon a capability that can efficiently and effectively deliver national IP data networking and voice over IP from its own infrastructure will emerge as a major provider of Australian business communications," Sykes says. "It will be able to compete strongly with Telstra and Optus through its compelling market proposition."
Sykes believes technologies such as IP telephony, and VPN technologies will provide the necessary consumer impetus, and like the enterprise software sector, broadband providers will increasingly focus on SMEs.
"The key challenges we face is reaching the 600,000 plus SMEs and providing robust broadband solutions to make them more competitive in the global marketplace," Sykes said.
So if industry pundits are to be believed, 2003 will see data become more readily available, through evermore mobile and diverse platforms, so don't be surprised if this time next year you wind up reading ZDNet Australia on a mobile wireless platform, but then again it’s a scenario we've been hearing about for sometime, and chances are you are still in the office.
Happy New Year from the News and Tech team at ZDNet Australia, and may 2003 bring security, prosperity, bandwidth and a great new range of gadgets.
