Predicting the future is a mug's game at the best of times.
The Internet landscape is littered with the carcasses of start-up companies who thought they could predict the future--a future with limitless supplies of cash from angel investors unconcerned about whether there was a reasonable business plan behind the companies' ideas.
But the industry wised up, and reality slid back into place with an audible thump. Our world is perhaps a bit wiser now. In any case, it's certainly more parsimonious. Consequently, the "we'll do the whole darned thing ourselves" attitude has been replaced with "adapt and prosper."
This is one reason why the open source (and yes, free) aspect of Linux will continue to be attractive to the embedded market. And it's also why Java and its cross-platform nature will become more and more popular as time goes on.
Despite my better judgment, I'm going to make my own attempt to predict the future--a future I'd personally like to see, at least.
The future
No doubt you've already heard predictions about the home of the future: a living space rife with network enabled devices connected to each other and also to the Internet; a fridge that orders milk when you run out; and a washing machine that emails a distress call to the pantry when it's about to run out of detergent.
But have you ever thought about how some of these futuristic-sounding ideas might actually work in the next few years, rather than at some indeterminate time in the next decade?
The backbone of the "connected" home will clearly be a computer of some sort. This computer (or "home services gateway" as I've heard it called) won't be a desktop PC that crashes when you install new software or gets infected by a virus every time your children download a new game from the Internet.
It probably won't need much of a graphical user interface (GUI), if at all. It won't even need to be very powerful. There's no reason why the obsolete computers of tomorrow can't be transformed into stable Linux servers for the connected home.
And what's connected to this home gateway? Put simply: everything.
From a tiny device with a Java processor (that executes Java bytecode directly) with no interface, to a smart power meter running a small-footprint embedded Linux OS and a Java-based user interface, to a set-top box that runs a relatively full-featured version of Linux with a Java GUI--a home gateway can connect a myriad of such devices.
Science fiction?
Imagine it's the middle of winter. You're running late at work and you've got unexpected guests coming over for dinner, but you don't have time to prepare your home and get extra shopping done for the meal.
Using your Linux/Java PDA, you launch a house-controller application that displays a small map of the rooms in your home. You click on the lounge and kitchen areas, then on the heating icon, and then enter a start time for the heater. The house-controller app then connects to your home services gateway and sends the necessary instructions. The gateway calls the heater in the lounge--a "model 2" heater--and sets its startup time. The heater in the kitchen is a "model 1," however, and has only a simple on/off switch; in this case the gateway waits until the specified time to send an "on" signal to the heater.
Using another application, you skim through your recipe list and select a suitable meal for your guests. Your home gateway already has a list (e-mailed by the supermarket at the time of delivery) of the items in your pantry and fridge, so it compiles and sends a list of missing ingredients to a couple of "emergency supermarkets" on your subscribed list. The prices are returned (probably in XML format) and the gateway chooses the least expensive option.
A confirmation email from the supermarket arrives while you're driving home and your car reads it to you. The groceries are scheduled to arrive 20 minutes before you get home, and no one's there to receive delivery. You pull the car over (the driver's side gateway console won't work while the car is moving, of course), open the house-controller app and click on the laundry area of the map, then on the security button to switch off that zone. You configure a once-only access code for the laundry door, and reply to the supermarket's confirmation email with the access code in the special instructions area.
The problems of the evening have been sorted out with a minimum of fuss!
Science fact
Did that scenario sound like science fiction?
It shouldn't. Most of what I've described will likely be commonplace within a few years (or less). Consider:
- A Linux/Java PDA has recently been announced by Sharp and is due out later this year. In addition, Compaq's iPAQ also features Linux/Java support, and others are on the horizon.
- Back in January, DaimlerChrysler demoed a concept car equipped with four internal computers running Red Hat Linux and a standard Java Virtual Machine running Espial's DeviceTop environment; the system lets passengers browse the Web, check email, listen to MP3s, and so on.
- Here in the UK, a number of supermarkets already offer Internet shopping and home delivery services, so it's not much of a stretch to think that your grocery shopping could be tied to an application on your gateway that monitors your weekly purchases and remembers what you need.
- The home-controller app I've described doesn't necessarily need to run on a PDA. A J2ME-capable mobile phone (available now from several providers) could run it just as well.
- Java processors might be relatively expensive now, but they'll inevitably drop in price. A small Java controller could conceivably plug into your existing heating unit and connect to your gateway through your home's AC power cables, to be controlled by a centralized device.
- PC-controlled home security systems aren't new, but they're also not easy for an average homeowner to install. In an already networked home, however, if you want to add another sensor in your lounge you just plug it into a network point; or better yet, a wireless sensor unit could simply plug itself in. The security software takes care of the rest.
- Electronic locks aren't new, either--networked electronic locks are already commonly used by hotels and businesses. Anyone with a bit of technical know-how could easily connect these devices to a home automation system--right now. (A good example of this is a locking system using iButtons from Dallas Semiconductor.)
I've already mentioned several reasons why these two technologies are important in the embedded space. I believe one of the most important reasons for using Linux is that an open source operating system can be adapted with relative ease to fit a particular environment, without the need to rewrite the entire OS. A couple of additional reasons jump immediately to mind: stability and reliability.
But why add Java to embedded Linux?
I think the answer to this lies in the extraordinary adaptability of Linux. The ability to use Linux in such a wide range of smart devices and embedded applications makes the use of Java particularly important.
Why? One of Java's main selling points has been its "Write Once, Run Anywhere" philosophy. Granted, this phrase has devolved to "Write Once, Test Everywhere"; but I've never worked with another language with which I could develop on one platform and then move my apps to a different platform without having to put serious thought and effort into the process.
For example, imagine that you own a PDA running one OS, but you want to use a piece of software that's available only for a competing OS (e.g. Windows CE vs. Palm). Short of requesting that the developer port the software to your PDA's OS, there's not much you can do.
However, if the software is written in Java, as long as a virtual machine is available for your PDA, you can run the app. When you think about how many applications will be developed for embedded technology--from an automobile telematics system to a touch-screen GUI for a refrigerator--you get an idea of the enormous potential for these devices.
Also, you begin to realise the utility of an application environment and programming language that are relatively decoupled from the hardware on which they operate.
You know how we laugh at those predictions of the past saying that in the year 2000 we would be wearing silver foil suits and travelling in flying carriages? Better not make predictions....