I also try to think about what's best for Microsoft as a company, because accomplishing my user-friendly goals often requires huge infusions of cash.
Today, I'm going to mix what Microsoft should do for the good of you and me with what the company needs to do in its own best interest. The result is my list of Microsoft's Top 10 Challenges for 2004.
My list is informed by another one compiled each year by my friends at the Directions on Microsoft newsletter. Their list has a deeply business-y feel to it, not surprising for a group whose primary audiences are Microsoft's biggest customers and companies that sell stuff to Microsoft. And neither list offers solutions, only challenges, although I do recommend some specific actions and non-actions.
Here goes:
1. The most important thing for Microsoft to do in 2004 is to resist the temptation to do a major upgrade to Windows XP. The company might like to give users a taste of what's in store for them when Longhorn finally ships (in 2005 or 2006). But the last time the company tried something like this was when Windows XP had slipped past its original target date. In response, Microsoft unleashed Windows Me, an OS that really wasn't ready, on an unsuspecting world. I hope Redmond has learned from that disaster. (Hint: This will also be at the top of the 2005 list as well.)
2. Microsoft needs to ship a Longhorn beta that is stable enough for corporate customers to use for development sometime in 2004. Most of what is new in Longhorn is developer-oriented, and will take a while to filter down to users. The sooner developers can start working, the better.
3. Linux is a competitive threat and Microsoft must respond aggressively if it wants to contain more serious competition in the future. This situation is good for customers because a frightened Microsoft has, in the past, been an innovative Microsoft. It also keeps prices customer-friendly. However, a frightened Microsoft has also been later accused of illegalities. So in 2004, Microsoft's priority must be to tear down Linux without winding up back in federal court.
4. A big issue we haven't heard so much about lately is digital rights management, or DRM. Microsoft needs to do a better job of educating customers, lawmakers, and the public on what DRM means in the workplace. Redmond also needs to articulate a position on fair rights issues in entertainment and electronic media. What should consumers be able to do with the content they purchase? Microsoft has the opportunity to make things better for consumers or worse, but seems to be doing nothing.
5. Microsoft must do more for small businesses, which have every reason to feel like the stepchildren of the big enterprise customers. Microsoft could take a lesson from Intuit: the QuickBooks people really know what it means to be close to their customers. One of the things Microsoft needs to do for small businesses is make it easier for them to license its products at reasonable terms and prices.
6. Make speech recognition happen ASAP. I'm a big believer that voice will be the next major inflection point in user interface design. It will be much more important as well as more useful than great handwriting recognition. Microsoft recently released a product called Voice Command, which shows what progress has been made with speaker-independent voice recognition. We're still years away from voice UI being as common as a graphic UI, but this is one bet Microsoft needs to continue placing.
7. Security remains a huge issue and after an initially promising start, Microsoft seems to have gone periscope-down on security. I am very concerned that we won't get the huge improvement we need until Longhorn ships and becomes a real option for the average PC user. I hope we won't have to wait that long, but it's shaping up that way. 8. As a related issue, Microsoft needs to continue to concentrate on solving the spam problem. It's off to a good start with the filters in MSN and Outlook 2003, but the spammers are a crafty bunch and can be expected to take countermeasures (in fact, they already have). This will be a back-and-forth battle for some time.
9. In the consumer space, Microsoft really does need to make Xbox profitable in 2004. OK, there's enough cash lying around that Microsoft doesn't have to do much of anything, but it would be nice to see the game console start paying its own way. Profitable businesses are happy businesses and free resources to be invested elsewhere. It would also be nice to see MSN become a real competitor to AOL.
10. At a philosophical level, Microsoft needs to figure out what it means to be Microsoft in a changed marketplace. The competitive pressures that used to drive Microsoft from the outside are largely gone, except when it comes to big corporate computing, where Microsoft still has a lot of work to do. All the easy work -- if you can say turning DOS into Windows XP was easy -- has been done. Customers demand more bang for the buck, even as Microsoft finds it more difficult to deliver. For this reason, I think Microsoft is wise to head toward an annual licensing or subscription model for corporate software. Customers hate it, but this may be what is required to fund continuing innovation.
There you have the Top 10 Challenges Microsoft needs to face in 2004.
Whether or not Microsoft elects to take me up on any of these suggestions, I'm actually beginning to feel optimistic about 2004. The bad tech economy seems to be improving, though remains fragile. My optimism is tempered by the larger-than-usual number of unknowns out there: What if this remains a "jobless" recovery? What if things go poorly in Iraq or with the war on terrorism? What impact will next year's election have? Still, despite those unknowns, I feel confident 2004 will be a better year for all (well, most) of us than 2003.
I would like to see Microsoft concentrate on doing just one thing right, like creating an operating system without bugs or needing fixes, instead of trying to be everything to everyone. Then, and only then, will Microsoft have a name to be proud of.