Is the demand for desktop Linux negligible?

There's been much fanfare about Linux replacing Windows on desktops but we've yet to see any major adoptions take place -- this may have something to do with the fact that in Australia, none of the major PC manufacturers have offered Linux as a pre-installed option.

Dell has been offering Ubuntu, a flavour particularly popular with consumers, in the US for some time but we've yet to see it in any other countries. Acer recently started selling the Aspire 5710Z with Ubuntu, but only in Singapore for now.

The company claims it will not be offering it in the UK due to a lack of demand from resellers. At the time of publishing, a local spokesperson was unavailable for comment.

Toshiba is another manufacturer that claims it is not offering pre-installed Linux due to a lack of demand. The company's pre-sales technical specialist, Keith Rothsay, told ZDNet Australia that he has only had a handful of enquiries about desktop Linux.

"Five or six [queries] across Australia and New Zealand, and that's total in the last three years from end-user customers -- and the majority have been from Canberra," said Rothsay.

Toshiba customers that plan to install Linux are offered limited support, such as power management drivers from an information page on its Japanese Web site.

"We believe that with Linux in particular, it's best handled by the community, and that's the whole point of that project ... we don't have local support facilities although we will certainly do it on an 'as best' basis," said Rothsay.

Analysts say the cost of retraining staff along with the entrenched install base of Windows means it could be some time before Linux becomes a popular alternative to Microsoft's desktop OS.

Michael Warrilow from analyst firm Hydrasight, agrees that the interest from Australian businesses has been negligible -- because of Microsoft's hold on the market.

"There's just too much of an installed base and experience around Windows regardless of whether you think it's a good operating system or not. No matter what people [say] about Windows, there is no great impetus to move off it in the business community. People are just satisfied with Office or not dissatisfied enough to get off Office and Windows," he said.

He also agrees that there simply isn't enough demand from customers for an open source desktop operating system.

"There isn't any large demand in the business community for those products and that's why there has been such a lack of momentum to push that out as a standard offering on the hardware," he said.

"You'll tend to find in the business audience that's only going to happen when a huge government department [adopts Linux] ... The only reason I've seen government departments do it has been -- in Australia and across the region -- more of a political statement: 'we're going to go open source'.

"The business case justification hasn't been there because of the cost associated with migrating users and just the [assumed] learning curve associated with that," he said.

Migrating users to Linux would only result in a small cost saving when considering the total cost of ownership, Kevin McIsaac an analyst from IBRS said. "People argue that Linux is free ... but the operating system is probably less that five percent of a four-year TCO.

"You really risk lowering your acquisition cost by a few percent and be very unclear about what that means to your longer-term cost and impact. Most IT managers have far bigger problems to deal with today."

However, he believes that there are situations where Linux makes sense. "I honestly believe there are a couple places where the mix is appropriate. In developed countries like Australia it's great where you need a "fixed function" device [such as kiosks, ATMs, reservation counters and libraries] and not your classic knowledge worker network. Nobody cares what OS you're using," said McIsaac.

He said the greatest potential for Linux on the desktop is in developing countries: "Their labour rates are so much lower and hardware costs have dropped so much that in those countries the cost of the operating system, and particularly the office productivity software on top of that, will become a significant part of the TCO".

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Talkback 28 comments

    Please!... Anonymous -- 03/08/07

    I know this is the OZ ZDNet, but don't you guys read what your sister publication publishes?? HP just inked a deal for 5K units of desktop with Linux as the OS. How much bigger does a deal have to be before you consider it 'significant'?

    Significance Anonymous -- 03/08/07 (in reply to #320083845)

    The total PC market in Australia this year will be over one million units.
    5000 Linux PCs from HP is not even half a percent of our local market ... and the deal was not even done here!
    So I for one am happy for that to be considered 'insignificant' given the weight of opinion elsewhere on the page that no-one wants to buy Linux pre-installed.

    Weight of opinion Anonymous -- 01/09/07 (in reply to #320083861)

    What 'weight of opinion' would that be?

    Methinks you've not done your polling correctly.

    Actually, Linux has 30% lower TCO Anonymous -- 03/08/07

    http://www.cyber.com.au/about/linux_vs_windows_tco_comparison.pdf

    At that level of cost reduction, a manager would be branded as incompetent if they weren'tseriously considering Linux & open source.

    Linux propaganda... Anonymous -- 28/08/07 (in reply to #320083860)

    "This document was originally created by Cybersource Pty. Ltd in 2002. An update
    was subsequently funded by Open Source Victoria in 2004." - From the front page of the PDF cited above
    It seems that MS isn't the only one capable of funding a biased study.
    Turns out I did a study last night. It found that I was sexy & cool.

    Howso? Anonymous -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085151)

    So? I downloaded and read this TCO document as well. Can you tell me where you thought it was incorrect?

    Like this: Anonymous -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085340)

    The company that wrote it has a financial interest in the report coming to the very conclusion that it does.
    I could point you to a billion studies funded by Microsoft which contain no factual errors which come to the inevitable conclusion that Windows Server 2003 is actually the 2nd coming of Jesus in digital form. You would likely (and rightly) say that those studies are biased and therefore not worth the digital paper they are written on.
    I ask you to extend that courtesy of healthy skepticism to Linux as well, instead of teenage fanboyism.

    But where are the errors? Anonymous -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085341)

    I take your point about the source.

    However, I've never seen any other Linux/Windows TCO study which supplies all the material, tabulated data and raw cost sources. In fact, pretty much every other TCO out there has a "Just Trust Us" stamp.

    This is the only one which shows its methodology, raw data and final results.

    So, I ask again, where were the errors in this TCO?

    You take my point Anonymous -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085371)

    My point is that it's propaganda. I'm glad you agree.

    You're dodging the question Anonymous -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085380)

    You claim that the report is propaganda, however you offer no evidence that it contains errors in methodology, data or conclusions.

    Are we expected to take your analysis on faith?

    If you have a critique of the report, specify what it is. We have an audience - here's your opportunity.

    5 to 6 queries, mostly from candbera? Anonymous -- 03/08/07

    Fools. Lies. I know many people including myself who has contacted various laptop manufacturers in Australia in regards to Linux. Dell and Toshiba were two of the companies that I personally contacted.

    Linux vs Windows Anonymous -- 03/08/07

    Who cares! Let them have it. I like the scene as is. Linux is for us, developed by us and maintained by us for us. The rest can run whatever they want to run.

    My Ubuntu does all it is asked of it. It runs my work laptop from the USB Live so I can do anything I like with my work owned, encrypted, secure computer, plug it into any network I like, share any files I wish, surf the net as I see fit and it doesn’t breach any rules I have to live by. :):)

    Again, I am very happy with the separation of the IT community into Linux users and others and I wish people would just leave this alone and let us all enjoy our chosen systems.

    Slowpoke

    RE: Linux vs Windows Anonymous -- 04/08/07 (in reply to #320083867)

    Yes, I agree with you, the rest can run whatever they want to run.

    The problem is that I want to run what I want too.
    I want to run Adobe Dreamweaver, Illustrator and Photoshop, and I want it to run as well as hibernate and sleep on just about any laptop I can buy.

    For this to happen, Linux need to expand its market. If Dell, HP, and Lenovo started to demand Linux drivers from their suppliers the situation would change a lot with respect to hardwaree compatibility, and when that is in place more people will use windows, and the more people that use it, the more profitable will it be to port software to it.

    So, in essence it do matter what OS the rest of them run.

    More users => better support => even more users Sly Coder -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320083903)

    You got it in one.

    The greater the market penetration of Linux, the more driver support, the more games, the more ported apps.

    And it's already happening.

    ISVs building new apps are opting to build them atop portable toolkits which allow them to run on most OSes, not just Windows. The more this happens, the more Linux uptake increase. Begeting more users. Repeat. Rinse.

    Virtualisation makes Linux a better base for running Windows apps than Vista. And much much cheaper. And with no bloody DRM.

    At some point in the near future, the first tipping point will be reached. This would be around the 10% desktop penetration mark. And the growth from there will seriously accelerate.

    If you want a recent example, check out Firefox. It went from 10% share to, in some markets, 35% in under 18 months. And you know what? In the process it changed how web developers built sites. Around 4 years ago, it was till common for sites to be Internet Explorer only. Not now. As Firefox gained market share, so the notion that you could build only for IE diminished. And that notion will never come back.

    The same reduction in uptake barriers is happening with Linux. The past 10 years have been merely the bringing the water to a background boil, striving to that critical juncture a year or three down the track.

    experts? Anonymous -- 04/08/07

    These so called experts fail to mention that XP have an expiration date as in milk. The question is to Vista or not to Vista. Spreading FUD about Linux doesn't change that fact.

    Pundits Anonymous -- 01/09/07 (in reply to #320083902)

    It's often amusing the see pundits floundering when they try to explain the world of open source software.

    Take for instance server and desktop sales.

    Just because it costs 3-5 times more (in both extra hardware and software licence costs) to deploy a Windows server than a Linux server, the analysts make claims that Microsoft has 3-5 times more of the market. What bogus counting.

    It gets worse.

    If 1 million Linux servers are deployed but only 100,000 of them are 'counted' because only those are sold with Linux pre-installed or purchased from Red Hat or Suse, the pundits only include those 100,000 Linux servers in their count - the other 900,000 never appear in the stats.

    From my experience over the past decade, only about 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 of standard Linux desktop or server deployments are made 'visible' in analyst metrics.

    This might make Microsoft appear to be in a better position short term, but long term, it's making invisible a great mass of Linux systems and Linux skills, which will merely accelerate the switch-over when the inflection point is reached.

    The Cost of Software Monopoly: How Australian Consumers Lose The Dude -- 04/08/07

    A Whitepaper on the Negative Impact of Microsoft Desktop Monopoly on Australian Consumers

    http://www.cyber.com.au/about/monopoly.html

    Microsoft tax in Australia - $200 million per annum Anonymous -- 01/09/07 (in reply to #320083906)

    From the whitepaper:

    "If Microsoft's products faced stiff competition, as happens in the PC hardware space, then its margins (about 80%) would not be sustainable. It would instead be seeing average margins closer to the 10% seen by commodity hardware vendors. If we subtract this variation in margins, we would find that Microsoft's revenues, from Australian consumers, reduced by $200 million dollars every year."

    Interesting business logic Anonymous -- 07/08/07

    I'm intrigued by the warped business logic: make it very clear on your website that a product is not available, and then conclude there is no demand because nobody phones to ask for it. Witness the response Dell got when it actually asked the question. One of the reasons people I know have switched to Apple is that it is the only non-Windows option.

    Correction: Anonymous -- 28/08/07 (in reply to #320084016)

    Apple is the only non-Windows option that isn't Linux.

    The market doesn't lie Anonymous -- 28/08/07

    Friends, Romans, Linux fanboys, lend me your ears: The market don't lie. They ain't sellin' em cuz no one's buyin' em.
    Don't make me write a blues song!

    Microsoft has subverted the open market Sly Coder -- 31/08/07 (in reply to #320085149)

    Dude,

    I take it you slept all the way through the US vs. Microsoft court case? You didn't notice that the courts found Microsoft to be an illegal monopoly, and the market in constant threat of Microsoft abusing its market leverage and power?

    Read and learn:

    http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/cases/f3800/msjudgex.htm

    How would we ever know? Golden Smog -- 31/08/07

    Microsoft has gagged the PC vendors for the past 15 years, scaring them off from seriously offering any competitor to MS-DOS and Windows.

    Everyone remember what happened with DR-DOS? How Microsoft knifed it into oblivion through the generation of spurious error messages in the Windows 3.1 beta programme?

    Most IT pros now dual boot Linux Mr. Whisper -- 31/08/07

    I'm an IT consultant, visiting plenty of client sites.

    What I notice is that in the past 12 months, the uptake of average (ie, non-propeller-head) IT people dual-booting into Linux has really spiked.

    Call it the Ubuntu-factor.

    Call it the Compiz Fusion WOW!

    Whatever it is, most now seem comfortable enough with Linux to use it as their day-to-day desktop, dipping into Windows merely to run that esoteric app or two, or to play games not yet ported to Linux.

    This is a huge change in attitude. It speaks volumes to the notion that once all these join the Linux fold, many of their friends, family and eventually work colleagues will magnetically align in the same direction, given a few years.

    Oh, and none of these people appear on any desktop usage stats either, as they're not buying pre-built PCs with Linux, nor are they buying boxed Linux product.

    Dual Booting - having your cake & eating it! Anonymous -- 31/08/07

    I don't understand why more people aren't doing this, I mean I can use MS supported applications when I need... then simply swap back over to Linux for a more secure on-line experience.

    Let's face it, Linux has come a long way... Ubuntu just makes it even more attractive to the general PC user to experience a non MS option

    Get your Ubuntu CDs for free, here! Sly Coder -- 01/09/07 (in reply to #320085385)

    https://shipit.ubuntu.com/

    Ubuntu is available free of charge and we can send you CDs of the latest version (7.04) with no extra cost

    MS Office is the Linux killer Anonymous -- 01/09/07

    MS Office has always been and will still be for some time in the future, the Linux killer. Until Open Office or Star Office can sucessfully open, edit, and retain 90%+ of the document format, Windows will be the operating system of choice for the majority of business and home users.

    Corporate users cannot afford to be in the position where they cannot open documents sent to them from customers and business partners

    Wine can run Microsoft Office under Linux Sly Coder -- 01/09/07 (in reply to #320085417)

    Wine, which ships freely with most Linux distros, can run all popular versions of Microsoft Office, natively on Linux. It will run these with no loss in performance. Try it.

    If you want your hand held, then get Wine repackaged as CrossOver Linux, for US$39. It has a slicker GUI and after-sales support.

    Either way, all your Microsoft Office docs will be available. As will be your Internet Explorer (and Active X), Photoshop and many current-gen DirectX games.

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