Apple to double its market share in three years?

By 2011, Apple will double its market share in the US and Europe -- a trend that will also mean an onslaught of Apple devices invading corporate networks, new research predicts.

According to analyst firm Gartner, Apple's rapid growth over recent years will see the company take nine percent of the US and Western European personal computing market within the next three years.

Besides the "coolness of its design", Gartner analysts cite Apple's stronger multi-device offerings and better support as the key factors contributing to the Mac maker's projected growth.

While Microsoft is named as the company most threatened by Apple's increasing market share, Apple's desktop hardware competitors such as Dell and HP will also suffer as a result, the analysts believe.

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However, Apple's rapid rise in Western Europe and the US will not be emulated globally: its worldwide share of the desktop market is set to grow to just three percent by 2011, according to Gartner -- an increase of half a percent from 2006.

One area that has to date remained immune to Apple's invasion is the enterprise, due largely to the estimate that 70 percent of a typical business's applications depend on a Windows-operating environment. However, Gartner expects that by 2011 around half of all business applications will be system "agnostic".

But it is Apple's portable devices that IT managers will need to watch out for, with a mushrooming number of requests to connect Apple products to corporate networks on the horizon, as workers begin using the devices as a means to transport their desktop environment from work to home.

By 2012, Gartner estimates that 50 percent of the labour force will choose to leave their laptops at home in favour of carrying smaller devices, such as iPods or USB sticks that can recreate a worker's desktop environment anywhere. These portable devices, which already pose a problem for companies concerned about data leakage, will increasingly cause problems in the enterprise until they can be systematically and centrally secured.

Yet another factor that will see Apple devices making a mark in the corporate environment is the trend towards employees providing their own portable computers, according to Gartner. Since the popularity of Apple devices, desktops and laptops is being driven by consumers, this too will contribute to greater use of Apple products as business tools, the analysts believe.

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Talkback 10 comments

    Tell me that once you've managed a Mac networkCraig Ringer -- 04/02/08

    ... because their network management tools and faclities stink. They're buggy, limited, and not very compatible across versions. Roaming profiles are slow and can cause werid app quirks, OpenDirectory user/machine management is buggy, etc. It's about as far from Windows network management (which can be hard, but very powerful and reliable).

    The ability to drop down a layer and manage it like a UNIX box is useful to a fair extent, but won't work around all the bugs. Apple have done a reasonable job of providing command line interfaces to all their custom stuff, but a terrible job of documenting it.

    What's perhaps the worst issue is that Apple have little interest in their software if it's more than two revisions old. No security patches. No support, even if it's just support for getting the blasted thing to talk to the XServe it talked *just* *fine* to before the 10.4 update was installed. Of course, if your hardware won't run the latest or next-to-latest software revision, I guess you'll just have to upgrade.

    This is a hopeless environment for a business network, making things like app compatibility a nightmare. Mac OS X is fairly forward-compatible, but a two-version jump seems to be worse than the XP->Vista move for the apps I've been using (though I actually find vista OK ... maybe 'cos I'm a geek who knows to to kick it in the right places).

    I actually quite like Mac OS X for some things, but I really don't want it on my business network until it learns to play well on the network, it's supportable for a five-plus year period, and it gives me the same level of network management and control I get with Windows workstations.

    I have similar complaints about Linux thin clients, by the way... they're cool in many ways, and I use them (and Mac OS X) at work, but their management absolutely stinks.

    Don't Mange Macs like WindowsAnonymous -- 05/02/08 (in reply to #320094939)

    It seems your entire problem is you are treating the Macs like the old Mainframe/Windows world. Fact is, Macs generally just work, so using a more modern approach is best.

    Just update a Mac "as needed", never just to do it like you had to do in the Windows world.

    Macs will never suffer security issues, rarely crash, and once a Mac is installed there is little left to do except touch it every 6 months to once a year with some minor updates.

    I see the mistake you are making over and over again. You are trying to apply "old school" ideas on MODERN Computers.

    Times change and trying to manage Macs like they are "PCs" makes no sense.

    Just sit back and relax, address issues as they arise, that way you'll have more free time and the Macs will work better in large environments.

    -

    Telling statementAnonymous -- 05/02/08

    This statement reveals a lot: "I actually find vista OK ... maybe 'cos I'm a geek who knows to to kick it in the right places."

    Maybe you should learn some geeky Mac stuff, too. Then you could say: "I actually find Mac OS X OK ... maybe 'cos I'm a geek who knows to kick it in the right places."

    A good admin knows where to kick, and refrains from sweeping, unfounded generalizations.

    Tell me that once you've managed a Mac net...Anonymous -- 05/02/08

    A question for you Craig: I'm curious about how Microsoft manages to get the posts from its paid commenters to always be the top post? Does ZDNet let MS know in advance what articles will be published so the comments are ready to go?

    Some hurdles still for AppleAnonymous -- 05/02/08

    Apple still has to clear several hurdles before it achieves significant market share in the enterprise space. First there is maintenance and support: a two or three week delay is frustrating for a consumer, but it is disaster for a business. Second, the Apple model lineup has serious omissions: the iMac doesn't cut it for a lot of businesses (try swapping a screen or optical drive on an iMac). Third there is the "single source bogey": enterprises don't like to be reliant on a single source of supply. Fourth, as Craig Ringer rightly points out, Apple machines don't always play nicely in a network, although they are better than they used to be. These things are true regardless of what Mac-fanatics might like to think. I'm a Mac user too, but I'd like to think I have both eyes open. To claim as one respondent has, that you should just sit back and update Macs occasionally as needed is absolute rubbish. There are five or six OSX updates per year. These are not for cosmetic purposes; they are to fix bugs or vulnerabilities, or to support new products or functions. Although Macs have not been a target for hack attacks that is more because they are such an insignificant proportion of the market, rather than because of any inherent impregnability. I'd like to see Apple grab a share of enterprise business, but they have a long way to go, and Apple's actions to date suggest that this is not the market that they are really interested in winning.

    Apple has moved backward on serviceAnonymous -- 05/02/08 (in reply to #320094958)

    Fourteen years ago I had a situation with an out-of-warranty Apple laptop. Turned out it was a recall issue. In any case, I phoned in the problem, had an Airborne mailer the next day from Austin, TX (I was in Washington DC), sent the computer in and had it back 48 hours later, fixed. No charge. You cannot even get that level of service now in the US with Apple even if you subscribe to ProCare.

    that's because...Anonymous -- 07/02/08 (in reply to #320094976)

    ... now there are more than a dozen macs in the US =)

    Gartner logic yet again. Stop publishing their fiction.Anonymous -- 05/02/08

    I saw the outragously stupid prediction in an RSS feed and thought instantly "Gartner". I opened the message, and sure enough - Gartner. Only Gartner could take short-term trends and make unrealistic and completely illogical long-term predictions. I just wish that journo's would do a retrospective of Gartner predictions rather than continuing to give time to their headline grabbing statements (such as story would be quite funny).

    There is a reason why other firms don't make these predictions.

    outragously stupid...sure enough - GartnerAnonymous -- 05/02/08 (in reply to #320094977)

    Let me guess...MacSux T-shirt wearing egotist gamer...wait...hmmmm - no spelling mistakes, can't be an a-hole gamer.
    Paid Microsoft professional a-hole?...no...a paid a-hole wouldn't discredit Gartner.
    An MSCE (ex MacSux T-Shirt Lan party gamer) with education. An IT guy (patcher), 30's-to 40. Microsoft is his life-not married, no GF. Practically still a virgin. Serious Apple Hater. Scans IT news every day looking for Apple hatred. Usually finds it.

    @ some hurdles still for MacsAnonymous -- 05/02/08

    Third there is the "single source bogey": enterprises don't like to be reliant on a single source of supply...

    I always love this comment as a reason not to allow Macs into the workplace.
    I always wonder why having vendor lock in is only deemed a problem when it comes to hardware.
    When I hear IT guys complain and their problems, they are almost never hardware related, but software, and specifically a version of windows. It is exactly this "single source, vendor lock in (microsoft windows, versionxx) that causes IT so many problems and results in huge costs. For goodness sakes people it's because Microsoft has you "single sourced, locked in" to Windows, that allows them to continue to put out such crappy OS's as Vista.
    The lack of logic is shake your head in wry disbelief funny.

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