As much as Linux has matured in the past year, the next 12 months should bring even greater changes to the market supporting the open-source operating system.
At last week's LinuxWorld Expo in California, attendees were already speculating about the landscape of next year's conference. By then, the Linux industry will likely be buoyed by larger distribution companies with broader product lines as well as an even larger stable of established commercial vendors getting in on the open-source action.
The changes, for the most part, are likely to be good news for enterprise customers deploying Linux. An expected consolidation in the market, for example, will result in fewer distributors of the operating system.
"The current proliferation of distributors can be confusing for the corporate world, so a little consolidation and more support could have a serious positive effect for companies," said Dan Birchall, an independent systems integrator.
Those remaining will be able to offer a broader range of products for corporate customers. Red Hat Software, flush with stock and cash from its successful IPO last week, will likely buy up several technologies to create a broad portfolio of open-source-based applications on which to execute its overall branding strategy. The Linux distribution company is expected to target such areas as productivity, messaging, tools and application servers, observers said.
Red Hat isn't the only Linux vendor with an acquisition strategy. Six months ago, SuSE Inc. and Caldera Systems Inc. explored a merger, though nothing has come of it, sources close to the companies said. Both companies declined to comment.
Following those talks, SuSE and Linux tools vendor Cygnus Solutions Inc. last month went so far as to sign a letter of intent under which SuSE would buy Cygnus, according to several sources close to the deal. The deal fell through because of a culture clash at the companies. Neither company would comment.
Many observers said these types of mergers are inevitable.
"The market is equipped to handle only two or three major distributions, not four or five," said Larry Augustin, CEO of hardware vendor VA Linux Inc.
Red Hat already has the financial and support resources the others are looking for because of its successful IPO.
Birchall, the independent systems integrator, said consolidation is extremely important and appealing to enterprise users.
"Right now, you can do whatever you want with any $50 Linux distribution, but it takes time to cobble the applications together," he said. "You know companies will spend US$300 on a CD instead of US$50 if it comes with real, serious applications integrated instead of the evaluation copies you get now."
As Linux distributors consolidate, they're likely to find more company in the form of traditional Unix vendors.
SCO, for example, plans a heavy Linux push through its services division, offering consulting, deployment and even management of Linux in the network, said David Taylor, vice president of services at the Santa Cruz, Calif., company.
Taylor is counting on SCO's experience as a Unix developer to attract corporate users. "Customers want to take the risk out of Linux by holding the hand of someone they know," he said.
Winds of change
Three likely Linux scenarios
Consolidation of major distributors through mergers and acquisitions
Acquisition of application vendors by distributors, especially Red Hat Software
Commercial Unix vendors migrating more fully to Linux
