If you're looking for the next big flop in the world of computerdom, look no further than the emerging e-book--a hand-held device designed to download entire books to be read on the device.
I'm reminded of the defunct Dynabook reader, which played CD-ROMs and had a similar portable-book concept about a decade ago.
These new ideas are out of sync with the realities of the marketplace, because they always emerge out of those specialty conferences where "group-think" is an epidemic. These are the conferences where new venture capitalists and hordes of know-nothings spend $US1,500 or more to be told what's new and exciting.
Since so few people realize that the demos they see wouldn't even qualify as proof-of-concept in most venues, they get all gaga over what they're shown, and the buzz begins. "E-book readers are going to be hot next year! Man, did I get my money's worth out of that conference." The buzz surrounding these devices is so rampant that a conference was convened by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and a consortium of publishers is forming to begin a standards war.
The companies announcing their intention to enter this market now include Everybook, Librius, NuvoMedia, and SoftBook. The readers are typically the size of a small clipboard or notepad, weigh anywhere from 1 to 3 pounds, and have covers that resemble regular book covers (leather seems to be the au courant material). Inside the e-books are built-in modems and varying amounts of memory (flash or powered DRAM). Expect a capacity of 1,000 to 2,000 pages of text in early models. The devices also have processors and PCMCIA slots. Many of them use proprietary OSs, but I expect Microsoft will roll out a book-reader version of CE.
The screens are high-contrast monochrome or color, and the software and format will vary from machine to machine. The prices should range from $US200 to $US500 for the reader/binder/whateveryoucallit, and you can subscribe to the equivalent of the E-Book of the Month Club for about $US19 per download. The big publishers are hot on this idea and think it'll be ripe for best-sellers. So what's wrong with this picture? Here are a few thoughts:
Ignoring trends. People buy books as much to put them on the shelf as to read them.There is also a sociological aspect reading. Some people enjoy lugging a huge Stephen King book around to show off the fact that they can endure 200,000-word novels about crazed otherworldly maniacs and spooks. Conversations start when you're carrying around an interesting-looking book.
Barrier to entry. Much book buying is done at the spur of the moment. People aren't going to go through a huge rigmarole to download a book. The market for downloadable books has been tested for years by Project Gutenberg, as well as various universities trying to put all text in machine code. You can download a free book today and read it tomorrow, but only a few people (mostly researchers and academics) bother to do so.
Reduced convenience. Besides having to download the text, these readers are more difficult to share than a real book. And what about marking up the text or dog-earing a page? We have too much history with real books to take this seriously. This is a completely new format for something that has been tweaked to perfection over the centuries.
Technology. I have yet to see a display screen that doesn't sacrifice contrast and readability in dim light or bright sunlight. The display needs to be at least 300 dots per inch with a contrast ratio of 40:1 to 50:1, and it must be readable in both the brightest sunlight and the most poorly lit office. Good luck.
Copycat thinking. Everyone involved in this business insists that the e-book should look and feel like a book--hence the two-page displays, book size, and book cover. Many readers won't allow scrolling, only turning pages. What a laugh; just read a book.
Prices of source material. Since 75 percent of the cost of a book today is chewed up in distribution, ink, and paper, you'd think they would reduce the cost of an e-book by 60 percent or more; at $US20 a pop, it's a joke. A better idea would be to bring out new e-book titles during the paperback cycle for something like $US2 a book. This might actually trigger interest.
After the initial burst of interest, this whole idea is going to fall flat.
