The Australian telecoms industry has been warned to change its tune or risk missing out on a slice of the multi-billion dollar broadband pie.
The telecoms sector is in danger of becoming an "old industry" and of being railroaded by the new entrepreneurs of more contemporary dot-com companies - of which 60 percent still exist - according to telecoms industry analyst Paul Budde, speaking at the now2001 conference in Sydney.
"These [entrepreneurs] are going to continue and be the drivers behind some of the development we see happening today," Budde said.
The "world outside" is looking at broadband opportunities and e-commerce, and incumbent telecoms corporations have to stay relevant to that world, he said.
"We have to be very careful that the world is not passing us by. The future is broadband. It's not business as usual anymore."
Budde criticised the telecommunications industry for lacking direction and not meeting the demand for broadband.
"Direction is given by the customer," he said. "Customers are leading the industry. It's a shame that as an industry we're not able to get our act together."
"We have a captive audience and what we'll do as an industry is wait two or three years then go jogging behind [the customer] saying 'I can offer broadband'. But where are you now?"
Budde estimates that whilst the mobile arena made revenue of AU$6 billion in 2000, that will regress to AU$5 billion by 2010.
"[Mobile] will not be the money-spinner that everyone thought it would be," he said.
Furthermore, other narrowband applications, which made AU$13 billion revenue in 2000, will have revenue of just AU$4 billion by 2010.
Fixed broadband, on the other hand, "is where the money is" according to Budde.
Revenue of AU$7 billion in 2000 will increase to AU$25 billion by 2005 and hit AU$65 billion by 2010, he estimates.
Wireless broadband, which will only be used in areas where there is no alternative, will have revenue of AU$4 billion by 2005 and AU$16 billion by 2010.
"Once people have broadband, always on, high-speed Internet access will be the killer application. Broadband is the way to go," Budde said.
