Social networking tools face uncertain future

Internet-based social networking tools are the hottest thing to hit Silicon Valley in the last 12 months. But they face a shaky future.

Despite strong initial interest from Internet users in services such as Ryze, Linked-In, Spoke and Friendster, they are yet to prove themselves to be more than just a fad. Likewise, there is little evidence these companies will generate sufficient revenue from users to be profitable. The sudden proliferation of services is diluting their ability to attract and monetise users. None of this has prevented US-based venture investors from pouring millions of dollars into them.

Social networking tools assist people in either managing their existing set of friends or business contacts, or in using referrals to find new ones. Dozens of companies have sprung from nothing in the last 18 months to provide these services. The largest consumer service, Friendster, plans to grow its 7 million users to create a community of people who are appealing to a broad range of advertisers. Business tools such as Linked-In have an ambition to transition users to paid services, by introducing charges for currently free services, or introducing enhanced services for paying members. To date only one company, Ryze has announced profitability.

If social networking is another bubble, it is one that will most likely float right over Australia. A poll of Australian investors found none were aware of any social networking services having started up here, and most were sceptical of the model as demonstrated in the US.

According to the principal at Technology Venture Partners, Mike Zimmerman, this may have to do with the Australian population lacking the necessary scale to support such a venture. The most popular commercial tool, Linked-In, boasts 700,000 users globally, but at the start of June had only 8124 in Australia.

Zimmerman also questions the value of connections made using these tools, in comparison to traditional mechanisms of introduction, and doubts that people with strong networks will be willing to expose them through these services.

"You end up with groups of people in two categories - those that really need introductions and need the service, and those that already have their own networks and don't need the service. I'm not sure if the two meet".

While these tools have some value in terms of organising contacts, professional finding examples of people who have profited from them is difficult. However, the founder and principal of the consulting company Digital Investor, Walter Adamson, says that on two occasions now a social networking tool has led him to a profitable business opportunity. Adamson says he made a conscious decision to use social networking as part of a business marketing program, alongside a Web site and blog.

"For me it's been a valuable part of the marketing process," Adamson says. "I've seen it as a way to leverage previous contacts, and a marketing tool and which is aligned with the kind of business directions that I want to take myself in. If you're just using it as a general contact tool I don't think you'd get tremendous value from it".

The manager of commercialisation and intellectual property at the research organisation National ICT Australia, Randal Leeb-du Toit, is sceptical about these service's abilities to attract sufficient revenue to be viable. But he questions whether it is fair to judge these companies on their current activities. Leeb-du Toit suspects that these companies may become acquisition targets for larger organisations such as Microsoft or IBM, who could merge them in to existing products, or use them as the foundation for new ones.

"So there may be some method in their madness, as I don't think there is a potentially scalable business model in social networking per se".

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Talkback 10 comments

    Orkut is doing great job in in ...Anonymous -- 19/06/04

    Orkut is doing great job in india. ask these services to send some invitations to them.

    Where did you and Zimmerman ge ...Anonymous -- 19/06/04

    Where did you and Zimmerman get your info?!? This report is full of factual inaccuracies that indicate that you simply talked to the wrong people in researching the story.

    Inaccuracy #1: "To date only one company, Ryze has announced profitability."

    FALSE. Tickle.com, Ecademy and Contact Network Corporation are also profitable. Add to that online communities that technically don't fall into the social networking category, but are closely related and have proven the model -- Craigslist, eWomenNetwork, and many, many others.

    Inaccuracy #2: "There is little evidence these companies will generate sufficient revenue from users to be profitable."

    FALSE. It's simply too early to tell. Most haven't even tried to start charging for the services, so there's little evidence to say they won't be able to, either. The purely social sites like Friendster are just now hitting the early mainstream part of the adoption curve. The business networking sites are still in the early adopter stage -- they haven't crossed the chasm yet, so there's just no way to say.

    Inaccuracy #3: "If social networking is another bubble, it is one that will most likely float right over Australia. Linked-In, boasts 700,000 users globally, but at the start of June had only 8124 in Australia."

    FALSE. Hmm... 8124 / 700,000 = 1.3%. Australia's 13 million internet users divided by the world's 945 million equals... 1.3%! Looks like Australia is right in step with the rest of the world when it comes to using LinkedIn. Your own numbers disprove your point.

    Inaccuracy #4: "You end up with groups of people in two categories - those that really need introductions and need the service, and those that already have their own networks and don't need the service. I’m not sure if the two meet".

    FALSE. There are two broad groups of social networking tools. One, the online communities with public interaction spaces, provide the opportunity to build new connections in large quantities. In them, the "social networking" features of tracking "friends of a friend" is really incidental to the group interaction in the discussion forums. I have multiple examples of people who have very strong networks, but by creating a group within one of these sites have been able to build their audience more rapidly than with a website, and to monetize it as well. One woman started a network on Ryze, and within three months generated $5,000 in revenue from two teleclasses, only marketing them to that group.

    The other group are what we call "social network visibility software". This includes sites like LinkedIn, Spoke, Visible Path, and Contact Network. What these do is give visibility into your network beyond the first degree. No matter how strong your network is, you can still only see into it one degree. There is no way to go into your CRM system, or our Outlook Contacts, and figure out who can introduce you to a particular person. It simply can't be done. That's why LinkedIn HAS attracted many very senior people with lots of industry connections -- Esther Dyson, Joi Ito, Flip Filipowski, and many, many more.

    Inaccuracy #5: "finding examples of people who have profited from them is difficult"

    FALSE. Where did you look?!? I took an informal survey of 125 Ryze users. Over 40% had done profitable deals with people they'd met on Ryze. The Ecademy Marketplace is full of people who are doing business on there every day -- in the thousands of dollars.

    So, how do you find out what's working? Simple. Keep looking until you find one person who it's working for, and then they'll introduce you to more. Talk to the nay-sayers, and you're only going to get introduced to more nay-sayers.

    Scott Allen
    OnlineBusinessNetworks.com

    I have recently started using ...Anonymous -- 21/06/04

    I have recently started using Multiply as my social tool and have found it to be an excellent way of maintaining contact with loved ones who are living overseas. I can see my nephew being born, their celebrations and experience their everyday life as well as notifying many (at the one time) of special events and posting photos of these events. I love these 'Social networking tools'!!

    Hi Scott, Thanks for taking th ...Anonymous -- 25/06/04

    Hi Scott,

    Thanks for taking the time to pen your response. You’ve pointed out a couple of inaccuracies, and I thank you for taking the time to correct the public record. I’ve noted these below. I’d like to make a few observations on your other points however.

    SCOTT ALLEN: Where did you and Zimmerman get your info?!? This report is full of factual inaccuracies that indicate that you simply talked to the wrong people in researching the story.

    BRAD HOWARTH: It is possible that I spoke to the wrong people – there are a lot of people to talk to. It also depends on if ‘skeptical’ equates to ‘wrong’. While I would prefer not to mention everyone spoken to in the course of this research project, the group did include a Linked-In co-founder, a SF-based VC who has invested in two social networking related companies, and various senior people in Australia and the US with links to or oversight of the social networking sector. This was in addition to other Australian entrepreneurs and investors.

    SCOTT ALLEN: Inaccuracy #1: "To date only one company, Ryze has announced profitability."

    SCOTT ALLEN: FALSE. Tickle.com, Ecademy and Contact Network Corporation are also profitable. Add to that online communities that technically don't fall into the social networking category, but are closely related and have proven the model -- Craigslist, eWomenNetwork, and many, many others.

    BRAD HOWARTH: Tickle slipped through my radar, which is regrettable given that it has been profitable since the second quarter of 2002 (as published in the Wall Street Journal on May 24). My scan of the Ecademy site unearthed no information on its financial position, and none of my contacts for this story knew of its status re profitability. My understanding of Contact Network Corporation was that this application more fits the bill of being a CRM application than a social networking tool. I didn’t consider Craigslist within this group either - in my view it is primarily a site for classified advertising. We could argue for days about what is and isn’t a social networking application. Perhaps it is the broad spread of companies that can be classed as ‘social networking’ that creates the problem here? Also, I don't consider that the success of any one social networking system has 'proven the model' - that would suggest that all are inherantly the same. The fact that Ryze is profitable proves only that Ryze is a viable business at this point in time - nothing else.

    SCOTT ALLEN: Inaccuracy #2: "There is little evidence these companies will generate sufficient revenue from users to be profitable."

    SCOTT ALLEN: FALSE. It's simply too early to tell. Most haven't even tried to start charging for the services, so there's little evidence to say they won't be able to, either. The purely social sites like Friendster are just now hitting the early mainstream part of the adoption curve. The business networking sites are still in the early adopter stage -- they haven't crossed the chasm yet, so there's just no way to say.

    BRAD HOWARTH: To use an extreme example - it is not too early to tell that a cure for cancer would generate significant revenue. In that instance there is a defined need. This is not the case with social networking companies - I found the need here difficult to define, and harder to value. These companies are asking people to alter the means by which they construct and maintain relationships, and are yet to demonstrate that people will do so over time in a manner that will generate strong revenue for the service provider. I did not say that this could not happen – obviously many investors believe that it will, as has obviously already happened with Ryze. But to take the two examples highlighted – Friendster and Linked-In – many companies have gone broke chasing models based on online advertising revenue, or in transitioning free services to paid ones. There are exceptions – but these are exceptions, not the rule. Will all companies emulate

    My apology re: "wrong peo ...Anonymous -- 01/07/04

    My apology re: "wrong people" statement -- that was harsh and atypical for me, and I certainly meant no disrespect to the people interviewed. My point was that it presented (in my mind) a very limited view of the issue. When those views contrast dramatically with both direct personal experience and research, it's hard not to react emotionally. Again, my apologies.

    <a href="http://www.co ...Anonymous -- 19/07/04

    <a href="http://www.collegester.com">Social Networking</a>

    Funny Laurel Papworth -- 28/05/07

    This is funny to read now, four years on. Particularly the "no business model"

    I just love the long tail in media. :)
    Laurel Papworth http://silkcharm.blogspot.com

    Social Network Project Greatoutsource.com -- 19/08/07 (in reply to #320080063)

    This is great tool for business developer

    http://www.GreatOutsource.com

    long term perspective Anonymous -- 12/12/08

    it's so interesting to read an article such as this now in 2008, 4 years later and note how far social networking has come.

    2009 - five years later Scott Maxworthy -- 13/10/09

    There is always constant evolution in the digital media space.

    The core to success is communication - connecting people and/ or making life easier, more efficient.

    Let's not forget the hype we had around 2nd Life - some win - some lose.

    What's the next "Twitter"?

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