Beyond the rich man's Tamagotchi are robots that walk, talk, and think.
The invasion has already begun. Once the exclusive property of sci-fi authors, moviemakers, and meteor-discovering backwoods yokels, robots are hitting the mainstream.
Having already replaced a healthy share of factory workers in the 1980s, our mechanical spawn are now moving into our restaurants, our gardens, and our homes.
Advancements in computing and artificial intelligence, combined with the proliferation of cheap energy systems like solar panels and sophisticated engineering, have now given us self-guided vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers, like the one sold by Hammacher Schlemmer (US$699; www.hammacher.com). The Flipper, a robotic burger chef from Indiana-based AccuTemp Products (www.accutemp.net), may soon replace the staff at your local greasy spoon. And this is only the beginning.
"Within the last 10 years there has been massive scientific progress, largely aided by the development of imaging devices, portable programming languages, and microprocessors," says Richard Raucci, author of Personal Robotics (A K Peters, 1999). "The problem is that companies are too scared to use the technology, because of a succession of overly ambitious and unsuccessful household robots during the 1980s." One failure was Tomy's Omnibot, which tended to pour tea into your lap rather than your cup.
While Raucci believes the biggest problems facing robots today are mechanical rather than AI-related, Hans Moravec, principal research scientist at the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, disagrees. "The developments that are occurring in artificial intelligence are truly groundbreaking and essential to the success of multifunctional robots," he says. "There's no point in having brawn if you don't have the brains to go with it." In either case the union of machine and intelligence is paramount.
Kurt Konolige, a senior computer scientist at SRI International, says he thinks people need to change their expectations of how robots work: "On TV, we see these robots who walk and perform tasks just as humans do, but often the easiest way for an automaton to clean the carpet or wash the dishes isn't the easiest way for a human to do that job. Form follows functionââ,¬"so why does the public expect a robot to walk, when a robot doesn't need to walk?"
Yeah, but what if you really want a walking robot? Sony's heralded Aibo is the first step down the path toward the android. Konolige describes Aibo as "the rich man's Tamagotchi." Produced only in short manufacturing runs, the US$2,499 pet can learn, play, and develop just like a normal dog -- and it doesn't have a reset button. It can mature into a multitude of different personalities, depending on how it is raised and treated, and even go on doggie walks (just don't take it out in the rain).
But is there more to the robotic future than walking the dog? Moravec thinks that by 2040, we'll have developed fully sentient mechanical beings. "These will be robotic life forms," he says, "with a mental model of the world which is constantly updated by their sensory perceptions of the real world, and with the ability to reason with and interpret their perceptions. Their behavior will be affected by the behaviour of others, so, for example, a nanny robot could be traumatised by naughty children."
