America seems to scream at the proliferating army of mobile phone users. But industry analysts don't seem ready to trim glowing expectations for mobile communications and commerce. The answer in effect --"Resistance is futile."
A smoldering backlash against mobile telephony burst into flames this summer. A flurry of media accounts gave vent to pent-up hos tility and frustration. They highlighted a growing number of venues where mobile phone users ââ,¬" like people with pets ââ,¬" have been unceremoniously informed they were unwelcome.
In a Corona beer commercial, wantonly tossing a pager into the water symbolized at least momentary liberation from nonstop work.
And yet, market research firm Datamonitor (www.datamonitor.com), for instance, proclaims that financial services alone will see a boom in so-called m-commerce ââ,¬" for mobile commerce ââ,¬" to US$1.8 billion in 2004, from just US$90 million this year.
Certainly, the hardware foundation is being laid. Almost half the mobile phones sold in the past three months were Internet-ready, nearly 10 times the proportion of a year earlier, according to The NPD Group (www.npd.com), another market researcher.
Meantime, though, worries and annoyances with mobile phones are converging from three streams.
As the Corona spot shows, mobile communication and computing de vices have come to represent shackles to the job that rarely come off. Sure, the cellular industry can say it's empowering users ââ,¬" the people who control distribution of their phone numbers and power switches ââ,¬" buthe message sounds increasingly Orwellian: Freedom is slavery.
After all, if the boss or client has your number, how do you explain why they couldn't get through at their convenience? And how do you remain available for personal emergency calls without leaving yourself open to work intrusions?
In addition, people have gotten sick of mobile-phone users who seem to exhibit all the consideration of swaggering cigar smokers at an asthma clinic, at least judging from a flurry of media accounts. Theatre and restaurant patrons have decided they deserve to enjoy their investments of money and time without being interrupted by ringing phones, let alone conversations.
More ominously, mobiles have come to be widely perceived as threats to life and limb. Possible health risks from using the instruments re-emerged with greater force because now they have the imprimatur of a researcher financed by the wireless industry. Health questions constitute the most formidable risk to the predicted wireless explosion, says senior analyst Adam Zawel at The Yankee Group (www.yankeegroup.com).
Support has grown for bans on driving while phoning, and the list of places considering laws is lengthening by the week. In a survey, 59 percent of respondents say they would support a statewide ban on cell phone use while driving.
And the future? If it's annoying to listen to a one-sided conversation, how pleasant will it be to hear someone order tickets or restaurant reservations from a voice-activated machine?
"I believe it's at least as annoying, at least as objectionable talking to a robot on the phone," says Clifford Stoll, a skeptical computer security expert and author.
Still, through it all, the growth of mobile communications seems to march right on. "We see no reason to change [our] projections based on concerns about either etiquette or health," says consumer analyst Patrick Callinan at Forrester Research (www.forrester.com).
"It's a moving train: People have become used to using these devices. The real barrier to mobile e-commerce is consumer interest. Because wireless operators and e-commerce merchants and content providers are so anxious to add another point of contact to consumers, there will be a steady growth of Web use, but very little commerce for at least two years."
Over time, experts say, an etiquette should develop between mobile-device users who don't want to become pariahs like smokers, and those around them who can't retreat to live out their days in mountain shacks.
"People are addicted to electronic communication and information, and I don't think we're going to get over that addiction," The Yankee Group's Zawel says. "It's inevitable and inexorable that people will use these devices, so it's a matter of finding the appropriate ways to use them. If we're going to have 70 percent of Americans walking around with wireless phones by 2003, the people who are annoyed are the same people doing the annoying."
