This year, speculation is focused primarily on desktop hardware, with rumour sites hinting at speed bumps for Apple's iMac consumer systems and a radical reconfiguration of the Power Mac professional systems.
Web sites for fans of skulduggery (which rely primarily on individual, anonymous tips) have been engaged in prognostications over what stealthy hardware and software will make their public debut, most likely during Apple CEO Steve Jobs' keynote presentation.
Peering over the wall
In the past few years, sussing out the future directions of Apple has become a field much like Kremlinology at the height of the Cold War.
Those who would attempt to divine the mind of the Mac maker rely on whispers; inside sources; and hints picked from, for example, shipping data, to break the news of what secret projects will be unveiled at the annual US expos held in San Francisco in January and New York in July.
As a result, rumour watching has become one of the most popular pastimes among the Mac enthusiast community.
Amid all the speculation, Apple has remained silent. Ever since the return of Jobs as interim and then permanent CEO, the company has clamped down on the once-copious flow of pre-release information from within the company.
Under Jobs, Apple has reportedly instituted extensive security measures to prevent the premature release of software and hardware specs as well as the marketing materials turned out by its contractors and to seal loose lips in-house.
Recently, the company has gone so far as to threaten legal action against Web sites that display leaked information; there are even unsubstantiated reports of intentional disinformation spread to detect sources.
Rumours fly
There have also been reports of inside information about new peripherals. In fact, reports of a new mouse and keyboard design appeared on both ZDNet News and AppleInsider, although the specifics of the industrial designs differed widely on the two sites.
And this week, some Mac rumour sites began to claim that Apple will unveil a new LCD monitor and a smaller version of the company's 22-inch (as well as rare and expensive) Cinema Display.
Depending on whom you believe, during his Expo keynote speech next Wednesday, Jobs could announce an iMac with a 17-inch CRT or perhaps a 17-inch flat-panel LCD; iMacs with up to 500MHz G3 processors made by IBM; a special-edition iMac with a G4 processor and bundled DVD-burning software; new colours; or perhaps just speed-bumped iMacs with redesigned keyboards and mice.
The Mac OS Rumours site, for example, has posted that it has seen "serious momentum" indicating the existence of an iMac DV SE with the larger monitor, in addition to a faster processor and "possibly" a DVD-RAM drive.
The site AppleInsider (an offshoot of the MacNN site) sees a bifurcation of the iMac line; lower-end models will resemble current iMacs but will come equipped with faster processors, while the iMac DV SE is "expected" to feature a G4 processor and a 17-inch display. (It should be noted that rumors of a 17-inch iMac have circulated around the last two Macworld Expos.)
Circumstantial evidence
None of these sites cites direct evidence of new iMac models -- no spy shots, no technical specifications. However, the circumstantial evidence is strong.
First, there is the fact that the last iMac revision came in October 1999, and six to eight months is the normal life span for an Apple product.
Also, there are widespread reports that Apple has let the wholesale stock of iMacs thin out; this is normally done when a new model is imminent, to prevent outdated systems from remaining in the channel. And the low-end iMac has been "end-of-lifed" -- that is, marked as unavailable.
The scuttlebutt surrounding the Power Mac line is stranger. The Godot-like multiprocessor Power Mac G4 has been a source of speculation since stories of behind-the-scenes demos at the Seybold publishing trade show and gained steam with a reported multiprocessing demonstration at May's Worldwide Developers Conference.
Most rumour mills say that an MP Mac is imminent, but there's little agreement about configurations or date of delivery. Most reports come with the caveat that announcements about the pro line may be held until August's Seybold conference. (Although Jobs is not a scheduled speaker at that publishing event, there is an open "Special Opening Keynote" on August 29.)
The most conservative estimates are that the new MP Mac will feature two G4 processors at the speed of current offerings -- that is, from 400MHz to 500MHz -- on the existing motherboard design. AppleInsider, which along with other sources labeled the new model the code name "Mystic," claimed that the new model will feature a revised case design that will be slightly wider than the current system.
There seems to be no consensus about whether the next Power Mac G4, whatever its configuration, will be based on the existing or the supposedly upcoming "UMA-2" motherboard design (unconfirmed reports of which have quoted divergent specs).
However, ATI Technologies, which currently supplies all OEM three-dimensional accelerator chips and cards to Apple, has said it will announce its next-generation Radeon accelerator card at Macworld Expo next week. The card has also been announced for the PC market, but only in a 4X AGP version; no current Mac motherboard supports 4X AGP.
Cloak and dagger
Perhaps the strangest turn of whispers arose at Mac OS Rumours. On July 7 and 8, the site published reports that the "Mystic" Power Mac G4 will sport an entirely new case design: a cubical chassis measuring 12 to 14 inches on each side.
In June, the same site reported that the next Power Mac G4 will contain six PCI slots, as opposed to the current three; however, the July reports included an "unconfirmed rumour" that there will be no PCI slots at all in the "Cube," with expansion capabilities handled by "a small connector which would support an external PCI enclosure with any number of slots."
By July 10, however, visitors to Mac OS Rumours found a note that the "Cube" reports had been withdrawn under threat of legal action from Apple. Other sites such as Slashdot picked up the story; one poster there even reproduced what was supposedly the letter Mac OS Rumours had received from Apple's legal representatives.
However, soon afterward Jonathan Apple, a writer for the Web site TheMacJunkie, claimed that large portions of the "Cube" information Mac OS Rumours posted in its July 8 report were "fake details" he had concocted out of whole cloth.
The site quoted "three out of the four bogus details" he provided, Apple said. In addition, Apple (the writer) questioned whether the removal request from Apple (the company) was legitimate or a publicity stunt on the part of Mac OS Rumours.
Apple legal representatives were unavailable to comment on the legitimacy of the letter.
"It's ludicrous to think that anyone would want to make something like that up," responded Ryan Meader, editor of Mac OS Rumours, regarding the allegation of a faked letter from Apple.
As for the planted false information, Meader admitted that Apple's claims were "true, in part" -- although he admitted to not having read Apple's entire story of how he seeded the false information. Meader stressed that his site included the word "Rumours" in its title and said that "anyone who reads (Mac OS) Rumours and doesn't view each detail keeping in mind that it is based on hearsay, rumour and speculation are doing themselves a disservice."
Still, Meader said, many of the details he reported about the form of upcoming iterations of the Power Mac G4, such as a rubberised bottom and an internal light, came from multiple and unrelated sources. Although these items should not be "entirely written off," he said, "they should be viewed with due scepticism as well."
