The industry welcomed the news that Intel is embracing synchronous dynamic RAM as a lower-cost option for its Pentium 4's, but what's it mean for Rambus?
Despite its downward affect on Rambus stock Wednesday, Intel's announcement Tuesday to add support for synchronous dynamic RAM to its Pentium 4 chip, was seen as a positive, if even necessary concession.
Before this announcement, Intel had publicly supported only Rambus direct RAM (RDRAM) for the Pentium 4, a position that caused concern among PC makers, who fretted about the cost and availability of the memory. Rambus' stock fell 11 percent by end of day Wednesday.
Industry executives, systems makers and consumers alike, welcomed Intel's support of synchronous dynamic RAM (SDRAM). Industry executives said it would enable computer makers to offer lower-priced Pentium 4 systems because, megabyte for megabyte, SDRAM is the cheaper of the two. Consumers appreciate that it will allow them to buy a lower-cost Pentium 4 system.
The big news
Intel Tuesday told PC makers of its plans to launch a new chip set that would support PC133, which is 133MHz SDRAM, next year. The chip maker is also evaluating double data rate SDRAM, the successor to PC133 memory.
Spokesman George Alfs said Intel wants to ensure that the Pentium 4 "is accessible to everyone with a variety of chip sets and memory types." He added that the PC133 chip set for Pentium 4 will be available next year.
Analysts suggest that Intel may have waited until the last minute to make the call on SDRAM to see whether the status of RDRAM memory would improve.
"It was sort of a Catch-22," said Mike Feibus, an analyst at Mercury Research. "Intel knew that if it didn't say RDRAM was the only option, then it wouldn't be." Feibus believes Intel gave RDRAM its "best shot." However, he added, the reality of the market demanded an SDRAM option for the Pentium 4.
Need for cheaper pricing
RDRAM continues to command a hefty premium over SDRAM. Indeed, Intel officials acknowledged the need for a memory technology that allows PC makers to deliver Pentium 4 systems at lower, "mainstream" prices.
"A lot of OEMs (PC manufacturers) are happy to see this," Feibus said. "It put their fears to rest. They were worried about price and availability of Rambus."
How about DDR SDRAM?
The SDRAM development brought with it news that Intel is also investigating double data rate SDRAM, known as DDR SDRAM, use with the Pentium 4.
Alfs said that in fact, "we are investigating a DDR [SDRAM] option for this chip set." However, there are no other details on whether or not the company will make such an option available.
Analysts believe that if Intel is "investigating" DDR SDRAM that it's fairly certain the company will offer a chip set with the memory.
DDR SDRAM offers 200MHz and 266MHz variants, known as PC1600 and PC2100, with maximum data-transfer capabilities of 1.6GB and 2.1GB of data per second. By way of comparison PC133 offers 1GB per second, and the top RDRAM variant, 800MHz, offers 1.6GB per second.
DDR SDRAM shows great potential for its performance, but also for its cost. Industry experts predict that DDR SDRAM will begin production in the second half of this year at a premium of only 7 percent to 10 percent over PC133. DDR SDRAM will reach price parity with PC133 as DDR SDRAM volumes increase in 2001, they say.
Intel-SDRAM: Should Rambus be scared?
The industry welcomed the news that Intel is embracing synchronous dynamic RAM as a lower-cost option for its Pentium 4's, but what's it mean for Rambus?
Also, DDR SDRAM has become the memory of choice for Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices as well as chip set makers, including VIA Technologies Both have discussed plans to offer DDR SDRAM support in forthcoming chip sets for the AMD Athlon processor.
VIA recently said it will also offer DDR SDRAM support for Pentium 4. Analysts expect to see the VIA DDR SDRAM chip sets for both AMD and Intel late this year.
Intel's new support for SDRAM and possibly DDR SDRAM makes things look dubious for RDRAM.
However, Intel officials emphasized Tuesday that the company still feels that RDRAM is the memory of choice for the performance desktop.
To that end, the RDRAM will still be the only memory available for Pentium 4 when the chip ships later this year. Pentium 4 will enter at the very top of the market as Intel's highest-performing desktop chip.
The first chip set available for Pentium 4 will be Intel's 850, which will support a dual-channel RDRAM setup. Intel's SDRAM chip set is not expected until the second half of 2001.
The performance issue
Pentium 4 systems with SDRAM will be certainly be cheaper than those with RDRAM memory will be, but will they perform as well? It's too soon to tell, analysts say.
It is possible that Intel's dual channel strategy for 850 could offer better performance than SDRAM, Feibus said.
Intel says it will. However, "It remains to be seen," Feibus said. "There are other system bottlenecks (that could effect performance)."
RDRAM, for its part, still hasn't shown much of a performance advantage. Even Intel's own numbers suggest RDRAM equals or is only slightly better than PC133. Intel recently posted benchmarks on its site, which showed a PC with its 815E chip set and PC133 memory coming out ahead of a PC with its 820 chip set and RDRAM in 11 of 14 tests.
The Pentium 4, formerly known by the code-name Willamette, is likely to ship October, at 1.4GHz, followed by a 1.3GHz offering.
