Skeptics agree
John Terris, a Microsoft developer and senior programmer with Kendall Placement Group foresees a repeat of what happened with Java."They may release something for other platforms, but it won't work the same," Terris said. "If you're strictly a Microsoft shop, it'll work great for you. But if you're a non-Microsoft shop, it either won't be as stable or as fast."
Microsoft officials disagree. Brian Arbogast, vice president of Microsoft's personal services division, said there can be no lock-in because HailStorm is based on open standards such as XML and SOAP.
"The way these services will get ubiquitous usage is through open protocols and open access," Arbogast said. And Microsoft's Brian Valentine, senior vice president of the Windows Division, also stressed that the company was committed to XML, SOAP and all the Inter net protocols going forward.
Forced change
On other fronts, observers said Microsoft has eased up on the restrictions it imposes on its OEM partners and accepted the inevitability of standards and interoperability. But, friend and foe alike said, this is not because it wants to but because it is being forced to by current market conditions.
Carl Ledbetter, CTO at Novell, whose One Net strategy is competing head-on with Microsoft's .Net vision, agrees that Microsoft is being forced to change rather than doing so willingly.
"Its behavior has changed but only in a very small way. The fact of the matter is that we now have multiple operating systems, and any browser will get you to the Web. Microsoft has come to realize this and is adapting its strategy accordingly," Ledbetter said.
Sam Patterson, CEO of software component supplier Component Source, a Microsoft partner, said the company is now far more open on the contract side than it has been in the past. "We see them being a lot more flexible, and there's a lot more room for negotiation in the contracts we work out with them now," Patterson said.
Indeed, Gelsinger said Intel's relations with Microsoft are more favorable and positive than at any time over the past decade, even though areas of friction remain. "We support Linux, which is obviously a threat to Microsoft and a point of contention between our two companies," he said.
However, Ken Wasch, president of the Software and Information Industry Association, a Washington trade group, contends Microsoft's business practices have not changed at all. Its vehicle for exercising monopoly power remains its OEM partners, which are "no more free today than they were three years ago," Wasch said.
Iron contract
The SIIA, which has 1,200 members including AOL, Apple Computer and Novell said that, from a contractual basis, Microsoft has not liberalised its business practices to permit competing technologies.
"From a technical basis, they also continue to aggressively pursue the tying of products to one another, creating the inescapable conclusion among end users that they ought to have Microsoft products from the back office to the browser because, if they don't, this will cause a significant deterioration in performance," Wasch said.
Despite some new feelings of openness, legal scrutiny appears set to continue, particularly since Sun and AOL have said they will step up their lobbying efforts with the Department of Justice and the attorneys general involved in the antitrust case currently under review by the Court of Appeals.
While legal experts do not expect Microsoft to be broken up, they said the appeals court may well reverse and remand on the issue of damages and remedy.
"The Court of Appeals could avoid some vexatious issues about market definitions and which facts to review by reversing and remanding the case to another District Court judge on remedy. Once there, a negotiated settlement is quite likely," said Stuart Gerson, an antitrust expert and head of law firm Epstein Becker & Green P.C.'s national litigation practice in Washington.
The latest .Net and HailStorm allegations could well be presented to a new District Court judge as further evidence of the need for a strong remedy against Microsoft if the case is remanded, legal experts said.
.Net a sign?
Some corporate customers see echoes of its pre-antitrust behavior in Microsoft's .Net and HailStorm initiatives. By embedding Passport authentication technology into its core products and services, then launching products such as HailStorm on top of it, Microsoft is repeating its competitive practices of the past, the CCIA's Black said.
In addition, since the trial began, Microsoft's monopoly has shown no sign of abating. Research shows that its monopolies in the operating system, Internet browser and office application markets have grown strongly.
"I don't believe Microsoft has changed at all," said Michael Sherwood, an American IT director.
"They don't open up their operating systems or other technologies enough, then they invite other companies to come over and develop products on top of Microsoft technologies. But those other companies are always at a disadvantage," Sherwood said.
