Fears that IRC (Internet Relay Chat) channels are hosting discussions on planned attacks to domains located in the Middle East have been raised on at least one mailing list that discusses computer security incidents and vulnerabilities.
Discussions have debated the likelihood that Web sites and Internet infrastructure affiliated with Arabic and Muslim sites may come under threat from site defacements, hacks, and Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, with some respondents suggesting cyber warfare may erupt along the lines the Israeli/Palestinian cyber conflict of almost a year ago.
Internet security provider eSec said it plans to keep an eye out for activity of this kind during the coming weeks.
“Almost certainly something like this will happen with some individuals prepared to take it upon themselves to retaliate,” eSec GM of security, consulting, Keith Glennan, told ZDNet Australia. “With technology where it is, the Internet is going to be one of the main mediums generating this kind of activity,” Glennan said.
However, Glennan said he didn’t want to draw parallels with last year’s Israeli/Palestinian cyber conflict. “It’s still very, very early days and there’s still so much speculation about where the blame for the terrorist attacks lie,” he said.
As it’s too early to attribute blame for the recent terrorist attacks, cyber conflict will consist of fairly scattered and uncoordinated action to begin with, mainly DoS attacks and Web site defacements with the latter likely to lead the charge due to the increased visibility for the perpetrator, according to Glennan.
Grant Bayley, founder of 2600 Australia, a hub of information on computer security, disagrees that there is an emerging cyber conflict on the back of the US attacks.
“The Internet is a great place for people to have an opinion, to argue with each other, to say people love or hate each other, and in some cases to say they want to kill people,” Bayley told ZDNet.
Bayley brought up the incident of the US spy plane that landed in China earlier this year, which was followed by hyped up stories of a "US v China" cyberwar. “These were little more than bumph. A bunch of minimally skilled young people from each ‘side’ attacking the exposed underbelly of the other ‘side’,” he said.
“I don't think this crisis will start any cyber war any more so than did Y2K, the American spy plane incident or anything else in recent memory.”
Mailing list discussions have pointed out that a significant event that spurs cyber conflict is followed by a spark of activity on purpose built message boards and chat rooms, as online communities form to discuss the event.
If this is the case, an emerging cyber conflict tied to the September 11 terrorist attacks could be on its way, as ZDNet Australia reported yesterday a massive increase in online discussion forums with some having to resort to censorship to suppress comments of vilification.
However, eSec’s Glennan believes a lot of what is seen on mediums like IRC channels and bulletin boards is simply people “blowing off steam” and cyberterrorists are unlikely to be on these kinds of mediums, which can be so easily tracked. “They’ll keep their tracks fairly well covered,” Glennan said.
Glenn Miller of Australian security company Janteknology believes there is a high level of probability that cyber conflict will flare up on the back of yesterday’s attacks and sees no reason why cyber tools won’t become part of the arsenal of terrorists themselves, as organised crime syndicates are already known to move information around using steganography – an alternative to encryption that hides one type of file within another and sends the message secretly to its destination.
Bayley also believes war will erupt out of the use of stenography but says it will be spurred by the control of such encryption methods.
“I hate to put it this way, but if you're looking for a war, keep an eye on the control of encryption… these recent events are a somewhat convenient (if not tragic) justification for restrictions on future development, usage and export of them.”
It will be interesting to see the long-term impact of the S11 terrorist attacks on civil liberties in cyberspace. Already we are seeing ISPs that scan user files and banning content, not to mention the military technology that scans subjects and words in emails in an effort to determine plots and plans. While most object to this blatant invasion of privacy by the military (if it is indeed true..!)if that sort of technology had managed to pinpoint and possibly avert this disaster, would we now be in support of this?