Bluetooth's long awaited arrival has eventuated although some believe it has been a bit of an anticlimax, but observers say it will take off once teething problems have been overcome.
The hype surrounding the arrival of Bluetooth got out of hand, according to a report by telecoms analysts Frost and Sullivan. -The waves of hype that surround Bluetooth have become part of a vicious cycle in which expectations are continually being raised, placing further pressure on developers to deliver and ultimately causing greater delay than already exists," Michael Wall, research analyst for Frost and Sullivan said.
In his research Wall points out that mobile phone standard GSM has had longer to develop than Bluetooth, yet the market is expecting far more from the more recent arrival. -This is compounded by the fact that some developers are already discussing the second specification of the standard before the first generation has had a chance to flourish," he said.
Jonathon Skelly, mobile phones product manager at Nokia Australia said of the hype: -Because telecommunications gets a lot of lime light, a new technology gets a lot, we have seen it with WAP."
Forecasts by Frost and Sullivan indicate that 11 million Bluetooth units will be shipped during 2001, resulting in revenues of US$2.5 billion. Skelly said Nokia will not comment on individual territories, but stated the company expects it "to become very prevalent, with a broad range of manufacturers. The more products there are out there the more there will be a spin off."
Wall's research leads him to believe that Ericsson will be the market leaders, generating profits of $800 million from Bluetooth alone. Skelly was unable to comment on the Ericsson prediction, but Nokia, along with Motorola, are well placed to benefit from the growth in 2001, according to Wall.
Wall's analysis indicated that Bluetooth is going to be good for businesses. Initial products are relatively generic with PC Cards and add-ons seeping on to market, but he feels there will be some winners. -Bluetooth has offered a number of smaller, highly innovative semi-conductor developers an opportunity to build early market share, whilst many of the larger market leaders have been slow to market their solutions. In the longer term, we expect many of these smaller companies will be either taken over, or be forced out of the market."
