The introduction of triple play strategies -- bundling of voice, broadband and pay television services -- is the key to VoIP growth in the Asia Pacific region, but will also reduce its importance as a selling point for telcos.
According to research firm Ovum, triple play strategies are ripe for adoption by small telcos: "VoIP is giving smaller fixed challengers the opportunity to build up true triple play offers without having to rely on resale of incumbent wholesale services, and to exploit IP technology to do so at lower cost," Ovum research director David Kennedy said in a statement.
Incumbents have invested a lot into fixed line infrastructure, Kennedy told ZDNet Australia, and will respond by cutting call prices rather than switching to VoIP.
As telcos' revenues from fixed line services drop, "the network they are trying to defend will become a less important part of their business", according to Kennedy.
When a certain point is reached, Kennedy predicts "maintaining the old PSTN technology ceases to be viable" and the telcos will offer VoIP. Such a turning point could be when fixed line revenues fall below 10 percent of total income, he estimates; currently fixed line accounts for over 25 percent of most Australian operators' revenues.
The VoIP revolution will not occur immediately, as Australia has "been a bit of a laggard" with the technology, Kennedy said, adding it will take "at least a couple of years" for the strategies to impact Australians significantly.
A catalyst which could speed up the change is the introduction of fibre-to-the-node across Australia. Should the copper local loop be removed, some kind of digital voice service, most likely IP-based, will be necessary, according to Ovum.
Even when telcos begin to offer VoIP, they will not be using the technology itself as a selling point, Kennedy said. Users will not care whether VoIP or fixed line is used as a part of the triple play, as long as the quality of voice services is high, he continued: "No one will be marketing hard on voice services in the future."
The standalone cost of voice within a triple play bundle will also be less transparent, according to Kennedy, with considerations including broadband speed and access to broadcast content more likely to affect operator choice.
