Budde said that there is absolutely no doubt in his mind that Optus is in retreat from Australia's residential broadband market, adding strength to similar statements he made in a ZDNet Australia report last week.
"All signs are indicating that they want - in as nice as possible way - to get out of the residential broadband market," said Budde.
According to Budde, Optus' withdrawal from the residential broadband market could be as far as two years away, but it could also happen within six months.
Budde's claim is underpinned by observations of the company's investment decisions.
He said that while Optus won't upgrade its hybrid fibre/coaxial cable network as it is nears the end of its lifecycle, the company hasn't laid out any investment plan to protect its share of the broadband market.
"There is no serious investment that I would read as a long-term commitment to [residential] broadband," said Budde.
If Optus wants to demonstrate a long-term vision regarding residential broadband, Budde said, it'll have to show a financial commitment that competes with Telstra's billion-dollar investment.
Not everyone shares Budde's analysis of the situation.
Ovum Telecommunications analyst Jeremy Matthews said Optus won't upgrade its network to carry full digital service -- an exercise estimated to cost AU$300 million - unless its content sharing deal with Foxtel is passed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).
Matthews said its residential network service is a "lobbying point" for its negotiations with the ACCC.
It is widely understood that content provision deals Optus is tied into with overseas movie studios represent a significant cost burden to the company.
Budde agreed that Optus is using its networking to pressure the ACCC to accept the deal, but said that it will eventually pull out of the market anyway. He believes the withdrawal is likely to involve surrendering control of the network to Foxtel.
"It's totally the wrong timing to start talking about selling it off to Foxtel because competition [proponents] would be up in arms again," said Budde.
Budde said the carrier's residential broadband customer base simply isn't growing fast enough to make the service profitable.
Last year the company had around 543,000 customers on its residential broadband network, and Budde's not expecting that number to grow significantly this year.
In May 2001, Optus disclosed that its broadband cable modem service had 30,000 subscribers. Currently the company claims that around 65,000 customers use the high-speed Internet service.
Telstra ADSL, which launched in 2000, currently has around 140,000 subscribers. An additional 25,000 broadband the access ADSL network via Telstra resellers.
"What's 65,000 [cable Internet] users after four to five years of cable service in Australia?" Budde asked.
According to Budde, the cable Internet service requires hundreds of thousands of customers to become commercially viable.
Optus itself has given indications that support Budde's analysis. In April, a spokesperson for Optus told The Sydney Morning Herald that its residential customer access network wasn't profitable.
In response to Telstra's announcement on Monday that demand for its broadband services had doubled over the last six months, Optus launched aggressive pricing plans to drive subscriber growth. Pushing the price of its basic broadband offering down to AU$54.95, the company is hoping to achieve a 100 percent growth in its customer base.
Optus, said that its new pricing plans are a significant indication of its long-term commitment to the Australian market, but refused to be pinned on its definition of 'long'.
Optus recently completed trials of a residential DSL-based service, but the company appears reluctant to generate expectations that it it will be offered on the home broadband market in the near future.
"We have completed a proof-of-concept of the technology. We'll continue to evaluate ways to extend the reach offering once we are convinced it will be commercially viable," said a spokesperson for the company.
Requiring access to Telstra's copper network Optus said that Telstra's wholesale rates are key to determining the viability of any DSL business model.
The ACCC is expected to announce its decision on how it will regulate access to Telstra's copper network in August.
The news for Australians interested in broadband just keeps getting better and better doesn't it!
So many large corporations in this country seem to have a vision which doesn't exist at a point further ahead than next year at most , and seem to act as if customers have very short memories and a forgive us for all our ill deeds attitude.
Believe me , you have Australians all wrong and we are sick of being taken for granted and treated like garbage; and we are slowly standing up for ourselves and not swalling shovels full of BS and rubbing our tummies any longer!