Speaking in Sydney in a prelude to the launch of his Australian Telecommunications Industry Reports, Budde said the Telco crisis of 2001 saw Telstra reassert its Monopoly in the voice sector, where it now commands 80 percent of the revenue. Budde went on to welcomed recent statements made by Telstra in support of Broadband rollout, and predicted up to 2.5 million Australian's would be connected to the services by 2005.
-Before it can experience revenue growth in data services, Telstra will have to canabalise many of its customers who have already bought ADSL connectivity, and they will experience a real decline in revenue," Budde explained. -However, when Telstra gets over rebalancing new broadband services and ADSL offerings their contribution will increase the growth rate to 30 percent."
While Telstra's monopoly is well established in the voice sector, according to Budde, the incumbent Telco only commands 36 percent of the overall data market, down from 43.7 percent in 2001. Similarly Optus' share of the data market fell throughout 2001, from 12 to 11 percent.
-Over fifty percent of the total data market revenue is in the hands of 800 ISPs, and while we have been talking about consolidation for years it never seems to happen," Budde said. Pointing to the emergence of local and community based ISPs, Budde predicted that Broadband rollouts would develop along similar lines.
Budde indicated that local governments, along with municipal management, would play an increasingly important role in ensuring Broadband access for their constituents.
Mobile market stalls
Despite predicting accelerated growth in the data market, Budde characterised the mobile voice market as being dominated by an uncompetitive oligopoly, and said growth in the sector was likely to fall from 11.5 percent to 8 percent in 2003.
-Growth in SMS use will compensate a little for the overall fall in the sector, but it is essentially and enhanced voice service and not a data service," Budde said.
Budde derided suggestions that the billions of dollars invested in 3G communications around the world would bare fruit in the short term, with the cost of handsets placing the services out of reach of most consumers.
-Why would you pay over a thousand dollars on a handset just to send a mini photo to your mother, who also by the way has to have a handset worth a thousand dollars in order to see it," Budde said. -It just doesn't make sense."
