Budde's 2004 report on Australia Broadcasting and Digital TV claims that the global digital free-to-air (FTA) market has failed to get off the ground due to restricting government policy over multi-channelling and data-casting.
"I think there will need to be a major overhaul within the next 12 to 18 months of the industry. It will have to open up to let the technology evolve," said Budde. "Take the example of data-casting, its heavily restricted by the government so no one wants to use it."
Budde said that the lack of support from free-to-air (FTA) broadcasters in embracing the new medium has also restricted the proliferation of digital television, as he said they are trying to maintain their oligopoly.
"FTA broadcasters never wanted it [digital TV] they felt that if digital TV arrived then it's just more competition," he said.
According to Budde, international campaign efforts and frequent price drops have failed to increase the saturation of digital TV Australia.
"By mid-2003, prices had dropped to AU$299 for standard boxes and AU$799 for high-definition boxes," stated the 2004 report. Budde said according to Digital Broadcasting Australia there have been 125,000 digital TV receivers sold in Australia and a "mere" 250,000 widescreen television sets since the launch digital TV in 2001.
However, Budde says the sale of digital TV products thus far is attributed more to the products accessories than the product itself.
"The key factor for growth in digital TV sets however is not digital TV itself, but the increasing popularity of DVDs and widescreen TVs," he said.
Budde predicts that Australia is far from ready for the proposed departure of analogue television.
"By 2008 the government wants to switch off the analogue system, at that stage only five or 10 percent of the population will be using digital," he said.
Budde's remedy to kick-start the flagging technology is to wholly integrate the digital TV into the broadcasting industry.
"We believe that interactive TV [digital TV] will only become a sustainable business when it has been fully embedded in broadcasting, telecoms and Internet technologies," he said. "Once it is based on an open network infrastructure, companies (marketers, advertisers, etc) can then add iTV [digital TV] to their own Internet, broadband and broadcasting services."
I dont know much about the restrictions on Digital TV broadcasts, but I have a theory on the slow uptake.
It is silly to compare the uptake to the uptake on DVD players on a couple of levels. Firstly, non brand DVD players are approaching $50 a pop, and even brand name ones are heading towards $100. DVD players are (generally speaking) cheaper than a VCRs, and provide much better sound and video than even the most expensive VCR players. VHS cassettes suffer wear and tear a lot more than broadcasted material (which often has a digitised source). Play a video 20 times and chances are you will get flickers, loud / quiet patches or tracking errors. Look after your DVD, and the 20th time will look as clean as the first.
The article claims talks about the price dropping to about $300 for the bottom of the range top-box. That is half the price of a 68cm TV these days. Now I am not 100% sure of the other benefits of the technology, but unless digital TV can provide a significantly better picture to areas where analogue signals are weak (or an internal rabbit ear / coathanger setup is used), there will be nothing driving people to spend the extra money.
Until there are all-in-one DVD / DVDR / VCR / DTV / Surround Sound Decoder boxes at about the $300 level, and new TVs are DTV ready out of the box, DTV will not become the norm.