This, essentially, was the message in a recent press release that is part of a continual promotion of this concept. It's pure rubbish, and the researchers who insist on claiming that a phone will be preferred to a computer as the way to access the Net should have their heads examined. I'm tired of hearing it, and there is no evidence to support it.
Here's how that particular press release reads: "SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., January 22, 2001_Wireless Internet access devices including palm computers, wireless modems and two-way pagers will boom in popularity over the next several years and eventually displace the PC as the preferred Internet access method, according to Cahners In-Stat Group. Shipments of wireless Internet access devices will sustain double and triple digit growth through 2004, the high tech market research firm says."
The release goes on and on about this notion, ignoring the current feedback from heavy phone and Internet users, all of whom are saying the same thing: that using the phone as a browser is a crummy experience. What's going to change between now and 2004 that will make this different? The Docomo phone?
Bad arguments
The fact is, all conceptual arguments regarding using the cell phone as an access device are based on the popularity of such phones in Japan, where there is very little personal computer usage. Also, the Japanese have a penchant for using pocketable gizmos. This is hardly a market from which to draw general worldwide trends.
To counter the argument that a phone simply does not have enough "screen real estate," the phone makers have developed flip-open phones that have screens close to the size of the screen on a Palm handheld. There may be a smallish keyboard below the dialpad. Ericsson was the first to show one of these, and now Nokia offers a similar model. Since the trend in portable phones has been toward small, lightweight models, I don't see a sudden reversal to large, clunky phones equipped with keypads. The fact is -- and this seems to have been forgotten by the researchers and pundits -- people use cell phones to make phone calls!
One of the most annoying aspects of the never-ending promotion of Web-surfing phones is the constant blather about how we Americans are falling behind the Japanese and the Europeans with our outdated cell phones. Maybe a guilt trip will create interest in these dogs. Golly, them Europeans all have these whiz-bang GSM phones that are so much better, somehow. And despite the fact that the world community keeps looking at the same equipment and the same standards, we are falling behind! We dumb Americans will never catch up. They can buy soda with their phones in Helsinki! Oh gosh. And hey, I need a cell phone with a colour screen. Yeah, that's the ticket.
The fact is, anyone who has actually watched the cell phone scene in the U.S.A. realises that the only driving force currently active here is the status aspect of the devices. The Silicon Valley types love to show off some dinky new smaller-than-ever cell phone. Everyone likes the idea of changing the cell phone "skin" to look cool. The chrome skin seems to be the most successful. This is where it all ends.
Four applications
The only compelling uses of cell phones with Internet connectivity will be for the same big four applications that you can find on two-way pagers, the Palm 7, and the WAP phone:
- address book access
- appointments/calendar
- stock quotes
If the Net is going to be used for anything new on future phones, it will be to download annoying new tones or songs the phone can play in lieu of ringing. These have become a worldwide plague. This is hardly progress.
And let's make one more note about the Internet-enabled cell phone: Most cell systems are already under great strain. Dropped connections and an availability of cells are common problems, especially during rush hour. Tying up the system with IP traffic is going to make the service worse, not better.
