Global handset retail sales fell 3.2 percent to 399.6 million units, the first decline in the history of the industry, which has grown at an average annual rate of 60 percent between 1996 and 2000, according to research released recently by analysts Gartner Group.
-The reason is very simple," said Paul Budde, a local telecommunications analyst. -There are a dozen countries with mobile penetration levels above 75 percent. These have been the high growth markets of the last five years. You will have to start selling to babies in order to sell more! Australia still has only 60 percent penetration so there is still room for a few years growth of approximately 1 million users."
Mobile handset manufacturers agreed with the prediction.
-This year will be a year of two halves. In the first half handset sales will be a little bit down on what they have been. Two thirds will be replacements," said Cameron Cooper senior marketing manager for Sony Ericsson mobile communications Australia. He said it is up to the manufacturers to bring out new models that give consumers a reason to upgrade.
Analysts agree that replacement handsets will form the bulk of sale in future years. Cellular Online report that retail sales of mobile phones are predicted to grow to 870 million units by 2006, with 77 percent of handsets sold being replacements.
