People will walk down the street to a chorus of beeps and rings as coupons and ads from nearby shops arrive at their wireless inboxes. Mobile workers will be able to get the latest report from the office, even if they're cooling their heels in the back of a cab. No wireless device will have a keypad, because they'll all be controlled by voice commands.
It's time to come back to reality.
While the future will indeed be wireless, some of these expectations are likely too great.
When observers ponder how we might reach sky-high penetration rates and widespread use of mobile commerce, they often begin at a disheartening point: The quality of today's networks must be dramatically improved if the industry is to achieve its Herculean goals. And they ask this revealing question: If wireless users today think that coverage and voice quality stinks, how can they be confident or interested in using wireless data applications tomorrow?
Last year, the Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association said that customer satisfaction with wireless service had dropped from 70 percent in 1996 to 53 percent in 1999. A study by The Yankee Group last summer found that two-thirds of mobile phone users would switch providers if they thought they could get better coverage.
The people of New York think wireless service is so bad that Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-Brooklyn/Queens, last year introduced legislation requiring the Federal Communications Commission to compile biannual reports on the quality of networks. "The idea is to provide consumers with more information about different services," said Serena Torrey, Weiner's spokeswoman. "Not only about pricing plans, but on the depth and breadth of quality."
The bill would require the FCC to compile reports on dropped calls, busy signals and coverage issues, and to post the results on a Web site, just as the US Department of Transportation reports on airline issues such as lost baggage and on-time departures. The plan provides a measure of accountability to customers without impinging on free-market activity, Torrey said.
Similar efforts are afoot across the nation. The California Public Utilities Commission, for example, is considering forcing cellular operators to allow new customers to return their phones and terminate their contracts within 30 days if they find coverage isn't as promised.
Assuming that the basics of coverage and customer service are ultimately mastered, wireless devices eventually will be widely deployed by enterprises, industry experts say. But it won't take the super-high-speed data streams promised by third-generation (3G) networks to achieve that widespread use, and it won't happen until the marketplace better understands how to best use wireless technology.
Contents
Not the Same as the Wired Web | |
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Packet Delivery | |
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Myths
