Computing
Microprocessor Architectures
Intel's near-term mainstream processor road map has two forks: the continuation of 32-bit x86 designs and the introduction this year of Intel Architecture (IA) 64-bit EPIC (Explicitly Parallel Instruction Computing) chips. On the 32-bit front, Intel has just introduced the Pentium 4, which represents Intel's first major 32-bit x86 chip architectural change in five years.
Although Intel hasn't disclosed any architectural details beyond the Pentium 4 generation, you can rest assured that the company's 32-bit processor line will continue to proliferate for years to come. Some analysts suggest that we'll be using 32-bit x86 products 20 years from now.
Intel's first IA 64-bit processor, the Itanium (code-named "Merced"), is scheduled for release this year. It will initially be used only in servers and workstations. The more powerful "McKinley" chip, which will likely double the Itanium's performance, should follow in the second half of 2001. The 0.13-micron copper-based "Madison" processor will follow in 2002, and the "Northwood" chip, which is slated to hit 3GHz or more, should surface in 2003. A lower-cost "Deerfield" chip may be introduced in 2002 for lower-end 64-bit workstations and servers, and possibly for a small number of power-user desktops. Few industry experts believe that 64-bit computing will be widespread on mainstream systems in the next five or possibly even ten years.
AMD has made tremendous inroads with its Athlon processors, but few details are available beyond assumptions that the architecture permits speeds up to 2GHz. AMD has disclosed that the "Sledgehammer" (an x86-compatible chip with a new 64-bit mode) is in development and is targeted for late 2001. The company's future 32-bit chips are still under wraps. We'll probably see AMD following a mainstream 32-bit path and a higher-end, 64-bit server or workstation direction for at least the next five years.
Transmeta and Via could become key players in the device and appliance markets. Transmeta is just ramping up its first low-powered chips destined for Internet appliances and mobile devices. VIA's road map is somewhat confusing, after having absorbed portions of both Centaur and Cyrix, but the company will stress low-cost, highly integrated components in the future. We can expect many more integrated processors with both graphics and on-board memory controllers, such as Intel's upcoming Timna chip. Recent system-on-a-chip (SOC) entrant ZF Linux Devices holds much promise in the Internet appliance market, with its fully integrated x86 SOC. And embedded processors will improve in key areas--size, speed, and power consumption--enabling hand-held devices and appliances to become more interactive and capable of more advanced computing.
Even with the bewildering array of devices and chip sets that will be available in the next three to five years, they will still probably be outdated within a year of purchase. On the brighter side, the application benefits are many: systems will be able to interact with users far more intelligently and naturally, and they'll seamlessly process rich data and streaming media.
