As the holiday season swings into gear, industry pundits such as NAI's Allan Bell warn of an increased risk of infection.
-Not only are there more people with less experience using the Web and e-mail," Bell said. -Many system administrators are on holiday, and their replacements may not be as aware of the potential threats."
However, the increasing affordability and subsequent popularity of so-called -always on" connections have experts worried about potential infection rates.
-Suddenly the integrity of the software running a computer, and the level of security provided to a system, becomes significantly more important with things like ADSL and cable," explains Sophos' Duckman. -Unless we start to see a greater awareness of the risks associated with these types of connections, we could be waking up to a catastrophe."
Duckman believes operating system vendors and other software manufacturers will need to take more responsibility for disseminating information regarding flaws in their systems. He cites the case of January 2000's Kakworm, a VBS virus which exploited a vulnerability in Microsoft's Internet Explorer software.
-Microsoft openly published a fix for the vulnerability, but still people were being effected 12 and 13 months later," Duckman said.
Software vendors, however, cannot be held wholly responsible for virus outbreaks, he argues.
-The guys at fault at the end of the day are the virus writers, these are the ones intending to do damage," Duckman said. -Software vendors need to be aware of the risks, and do all they can to inform their customers, however they cannot be blamed for an outbreak."
Over the next 12 months, one link in the viral chain that will increasingly come to the fore in terms of virus prevention is the role played by ISPs.
Paul Henry, vice-president of US-based anti-virus software vendor Cyberguard believes ISPs will play an increasingly important role in containing and combating virus outbreaks, although he believes litigation will provide the initial impetus for a e-mail filtering and similar services.
-ISPs may well find themselves held accountable for damage caused by viruses, especially if they have been shown to be lacking in terms of their service to clients," Henry said. -They also have a key role to play in tracking down the initial outbreaks, and providing evidence to prosecute people who are contributing to the problem."
It would seem that market forces are already coming into play, as some ISPs begin to offer such services. Iain McKimm, director of operations at ISP Pacific Internet, says the company has taken steps to integrate virus protection into its service.
-Viruses could have a lot less impact if it were possible to stop them before they even infect a company's system, or home PC," McKimm said. -Having the ISP scanning for viruses and worms will ultimately lessen the impact."
However, Duckman warns of excessive reliance on ISP-based security.
-It is a bit like driving a car: you might have the best harness and the fastest air bags in the world," Duckman said. -But there is no substitute for safe driving, and the same goes for careful Internet use."
It's sad that people focus their efforts on producing code that damages rather than actually putting their skill to work in a constructive manner. Does writing a virus that destroys a strangers work or crashes an IRC server really prove talent, ability or maturity.... or is it the technological equivalent of scrawling your name on the side of a train.
It's putting the onus on to users to spend time and money on antivirus tools, and rely on the antivirus vendors to keep one step ahead (one of the better products at that from www.nod32.com.au) and implement firewalls (such as from www.tinysoftware.com) and other security / anti-intrusion mechanisms.
Outlook and IIS often have the finger pointed at them as exasperating the problems, but Linux servers are just as vulnerable. The press 'slamming' of MS is often seen as legitimising the anti-social activities targeting the Win32 platforms.
The problem is, as the counter-measures get better the virus code will have to become more efficient, effective and stealthy... and to get the attention the juvenile writers desire the results of a successful infection will have to be 'bigger and better'
The worst may well be yet to come, but there's a lot of things that responsible sysadmins, ISPs, AntiVirus vendors, and the press can do to reduce the hysteria spinning, ego-pandering attention that is generated with each new virus