Investing in the future
According to the June newsletter of Silicon Valley investment icon Michael Murphy, the April collapse of the stock market presents buying opportunities for high-risk investors.
"There's a huge fourth quarter rally coming in technology again this year, leading to an even better 2001," wrote Murphy, an Internet financial commentator who also raises llamas in California.
Even though he has little more than a week to be proven right -- and a spate of earnings warnings and Wall Street negativity are likely to prove him wrong -- Murphy remains confident that 2001 will be bright. "Regardless of what the stocks are doing right now," he wrote, "the underlying growth and the major legs of technology are as strong as ever."
Another negative: Despite a heavy dose of layoffs in the e-commerce sector, the technology industry's tight job market isn't likely to ease up in 2001.
Roger E Herman, a futurist specializing in workplace trends, says the crunch is likely to last at least eight more years. Edie Weiner, president of Weiner Edrich Brown in New York, says entry-level talent will be easy to find as Generation Y matures, but the shortage of senior managers won't let up for years because baby boomers are poised to retire.
A simple dearth of middle-aged Americans is to blame: There are 76 million baby boomers nearing the end of their formal careers, but there are only 44 million Gen X-ers to replace them.
Prognosticators are relatively vague about the future of technological innovation. Few mainstream futurists are willing to give a date -- a day, week, month, year or even decade -- for an all-out calamity, even though many are certain that it's coming.
