Driving new ideas
Detroit car manufacturers have seized on the idea that they can, in essence, become mobile Internet service providers, giving drivers instant access to all Internet functions while commuting or driving to the supermarket. The first dashboard PCs appeared this year on some high-end Cadillacs, and experts are betting the next year will see even more models equipped with PCs.
"It is unquestionably the most complex and investment-intensive growth area of automotive electronics. Ironically, it is also the easiest to sell in a boardroom," wrote Gerry Kobe of trade publication Automotive Industries. "Although no one is promising free telematics in every vehicle in exchange for subscribing to a service contract [yet], the idea of upgrading vehicle electronics and funding it via mobile phone and Internet subscriptions is not lost [on the car manufacturers]."
Although a large part of the e-commerce industry went bust in 2000, many experts say it will roar back to life -- at least in isolated segments. Market researchers at PhoCusWright are particularly encouraged by the online travel market, which it estimates will reach US$20.2bn by the end of 2001. Travelers will buy $12.7bn in airline tickets online.
Analysts at PhoCusWright and other research companies also say that the online travel industry may ease travelers' frustrations at the world's increasingly congested airports, where record flight volume has also sparked record flight cancellations.
Northwest Airlines has become one of the first of the major US airlines to introduce Internet check-in, so customers traveling sans baggage can print boarding passes on a home computer or office computer and walk directly to the departure gate. The program was offered to some corporate clients early this year, and it may be available for all travelers as soon as next year.
Seers aren't so enthusiastic about one of the year's hottest segments: application service providers (ASPs). A recent study from US-based Zona Research determined that 63.4 percent of businesses surveyed use rented e-commerce applications from an ASP, up from 52.4 percent surveyed earlier this year.
But Gartner predicts that 60 percent of ASPs will fail within a year. Of the 480 retail ASPs competing in the nascent $3.6bn industry, more than half will go bankrupt, run out of venture capital, or be swallowed by larger competitors in upcoming years.
Financial fortune-tellers have also reined in stock market optimism heading into 2001, as the Nasdaq is on track to post its worst annual performance. Many say that the markets will tread water for several quarters. But a vocal minority seems to believe that the markets always trend upward, and they're certain that a rally is around the corner.
