COMMENTARY--Trying to pick the most hyped tech ideas for 2003 leaves you spoiled for choice, but it sure gives you a good chance to sound off about things.
In an industry that is never short of shonky promotions and vapourware, picking the most outstanding con jobs for 2003 was tough.
SCO’s lawsuit
It seemed inevitable that someone would try to challenge the legality of the GPL and the open source/free software model on which Linux is based. I think everyone expected it to be Big Bad M$ rather than one of the Linux community’s own. I say it seemed inevitable, though you’ll notice I didn’t actually predict any of this before it happened—everything’s obvious in hindsight. Still, you have to wonder how it’s going to work when so much of the Unix source code SCO claims has been stolen has been effectively released to the public domain over the years. Still, it got SCO some good publicity. (Oh well, some publicity, anyway.)
Utility/on-demand (etc.) computing
Everyone likes the idea of IT systems that can be virtualised to the point where they can manage themselves autonomously and apportion processing power and storage based on business needs. I certainly don’t know any sysadmins who would willingly sign up for even more mind-numbing, repetitive work. But even the vendors pushing the old “it’s not ready now, but you might as well start buying more stuff from us now so you’ll be ready to take advantage when it is” line must realise that sort of thing isn’t going to fly any more. Is it?
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I say it seemed inevitable, though you'll notice I didn't actually predict any of this before it happenedââ,¬" everything's obvious in hindsight. |
Speaking of apportioning resources to business needs, is that what the year’s most meaningless phrase—aligning IT with business strategy—means? It seems like a good enough idea, sure, but whose IT department really has a whole bunch of stuff in it that doesn’t serve any particular business needs? These days, the average IT project won’t fly without being vetted first by a crack squad of commando accountants who will probe it for every last bit of ROI. Which is perfectly reasonable, but when it means the only projects that are approved are those with short-term returns, and when financial metrics are the only ones that count, companies will miss out on technologies with less quantifiable—but just as important—benefits. Those projects that could provide long-term transformation and radical change will be shelved. Isn’t this even more short sighted than the uncontrolled spending this new regime of governance was meant to wipe out?
Spam legislation
It’s exciting to see a changing of the guard at the national helm of our IT industry. While Richard Alston was famous for his commitment to meretricious policy (something that looks good, but only on the surface), the new minister Daryl Williams will hopefully take the opportunity to help the country achieve real benefits from IT. See how, for instance, he has singlehandedly wiped out spam from our mailboxes just by passing a law to ban those annoying e-mails. (Admittedly this policy was cooked up by Richard “WBL” Alston, but the new minister has been just as enthusiastic in his promotion of the bill.) He sure showed all those smart-arse technical people who said passing a law would make absolutely no difference, didn’t he?
Hype cycles
I’ve very rarely known Gartner analysts to talk down a new technology; perhaps they’re just a really enthusiastic bunch of people. It’s occurred to me recently that Gartner’s hype cycle is a pretty slick postmodernist scam—while appropriating the language and cynicism of those who criticise IT industry hype, it’s really just a polite way of saying that new technologies are never actually bad... they just haven’t reached their “plateau of productivity” yet. In other words, it’s yet another way of talking up technologies, no matter how hyped and worthless they end up being.
One thing is for sure: there will be plenty to bitch about this year, too.
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