Tinseltown for the taking (cont.)
So now what Hollywood faces is a simultaneous attack on its two semi-monopolies, production and distribution. Of the two, distribution is more threatened. We may see a new age in which Garage Filmmakers make masterpieces for preview and sale on the Web. But your typical Garagist, like the independent filmmakers who gather at Sundance every year, have no desire to continue working on minuscule budgets and grilled-cheese sandwiches. For every dedicated aesthete who cherishes his hermetic lifestyle, there are a thousand who want to be rich and famous. The game plan is, you make the movie for US$25,000, it becomes a hit, and you sign with Disney and work with Cameron Diaz.
But, distribution, now... What would it really mean if iDVDs of new Hollywood movies were whizzing around the campus, and the country? And if anybody with a capable computer could make additional perfect digital copies of them? There would be a minimal impact on first-run box office, because 1) most movies make most of their money in the first month, and 2) the people who buy tickets want to see that particular movie in a theatre. But pirated iDVDs could cut into the aftermarkets of satellite, cable, network, and video. We're talking millions here.
What countermeasures can Hollywood take? There is always the law. Piracy, after all, is theft. But Web distribution is a hydra-headed monster. Unauthorised copies of original work have a slippery way about them and find themselves in strange mail boxes almost by accident. Whizzing around the Net, iDVDs would be less traceable than email attachments.
Hollywood will defend itself in three ways: 1) by vigorous copyright enforcement and prosecution of pirates; 2) by emphasising the extra bells and whistles and classy covers and booklets of legitimate DVDs; and 3) by offering some new features for Web downloading, either during or after first run.
Will Hollywood survive its techhead competitors? Of course. For one thing, moviegoers like to see stars, and Hollywood can pay them. For another, audiences like live actors better than animated ones. First-run theatrical exhibition will be more or less unaffected. And most consumers will always find it easier to buy movies at Virgin, Tower, Blockbuster, or Amazon than go to the trouble and risk of obtaining them illegally. Maybe pirate iDVDs will only prime the market for legitimate merchandise, as MP3 downloads have boosted retail music sales.
But one thing's for sure: Just as the big record companies lost their monopoly to countless smaller companies in the 1950s; just as hip-hop and rap were end runs around expensively produced music; just as the networks lost their monopoly to cable and access channels, so will the new technology create a parallel market of filmmaking and distribution. This could be fun.
The visionaries of film, video, and animation have already set up shop online -- is Hollywood about to take the plunge? Our annual Hollywired report takes a look at where the industry is now and where it's headed.
