HP holds tight amid wild ride

Could printers make or break Hewlett-Packard's ability to meet first-quarter expectations?

That's the question the company will answer when it releases fiscal first-quarter results.

But some analysts are concerned HP could miss estimates--for the second straight quarter--and again lower growth projections. The company missed fiscal fourth-quarter projections by a dime.

"It's hard to believe HP will deliver good news," Technology Business Research analyst Humberto Andrade said.

Printers are one of the big concerns. Imaging products accounted for more than 40 percent of HP's fiscal 2000 revenue and about 71 percent of its operating income. But industrywide printer sales ran aground last year, IDC analyst Angele Boyd said, and the outlook isn't thrilling.

"The printer market was terrible in 2000," she said.

Unfortunately for HP, other concerns exist as well. The company saw a decline in server market share in the United States, according to a recent Gartner study. And analysts say that sales of Superdome, the company's high-end Unix server, may not be hitting expectations. In addition, HP is a huge player in consumer PCs, which has slumped.

To top it off, institutional malaise prompted by HP layoffs and cost-cutting measures could begin to take a definite, though perhaps immeasurable, toll, some analysts assert.

"HP's January quarter pre-announcement was only surprising in the magnitude of the miss," Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro wrote in a recent report. She now forecasts revenue growth of just 6 percent. "The weak start to the fiscal year almost ensures that fiscal year 2001 revenue growth will be anemic."

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