You ask them how business is going and they say -well, things have been tough lately but it looked OK ... until September 11" and then proceed to tell you about new budget cuts, new job cuts or clients deciding to shelve major projects saying they will revisit things -sometime next year when things begin to look better". You can spot people with S11D wandering aimlessly in the street, eyes downcast with a worried look on their faces muttering to themselves.
True, things have been pretty depressing of late on the New Economy front as bits of the dot.com sector continue to crumble away. In just the 12 months to April this year, some US$2 trillion (or 2,000 Billion US dollars!) was wiped off the value of the tech-heavy US Nasdaq and 90,000 IT jobs disappeared. Webvan (an attempted Food & Grocery online store) was one of the worst casualties burning up US$850 million in public investment before it finally folded last month with debts of US$105 million.
Then there is the looming global recession - that got a serious jolt on September 11 when those planes slammed into the World Trade Towers and the US Pentagon and so many lives were tragically lost. Everyone knows the significance of events in the USA, as the saying goes: -when America sneezes, the World catches cold".
The S11D Syndrome seems to be spreading fast - -e-commerce bashing" has become a popular pastime amongst many journalists and business commentators of late. But they seem to forget that any major new technology like the Internet always goes through a cycle of Innovation and Adoption. This cycle involves 5 distinct waves (the Innovators, early Adopters, the Early Majority, the Late Majority and the Laggards) and can often have a bumpy path as the last 18 months testify for e-commerce. But the curve inevitably goes upwards and businesses riding the wave of change will eventually grow and prosper as the technology spreads and becomes an accepted part of our daily lives.
So what is the true situation for e-commerce in Australia? Well, the best thing to do is to ask the consumer. We have just done that and have released a major study into B2C in Australia and the USA (the 2001 e-Retail Report). According to the 1000+ consumers that took part in this study, B2C e-commerce is set to grow strongly in Australia growing to sales of $500 million in 2002 - growth of up about 50 percent on 2001 levels. Existing online shoppers tell us that they plan to spend more online, not less. Plus they seem to be shopping more frequently. Factor in additional growth from new and existing online Australian consumers deciding to give e-Retail a go and the future looks good for e-retail in Australia. If you are a US e-Retailer, well, hang in there. It will be a tough year (growth of about 2-10 percent seems likely) but is likely to pick up by 2003.
So there really is no need to ponder the prospect of a miserable Christmas. To help you dispel the S11D bug I invite you visit our Web site, www.pinpointresearch.com.au and order an early Xmas present - a free e-market summary of your choice outlining the size, growth, major trends and consumer demographics of 18 key online categories.
Merry Christmas (and cheer up)!
Tim Walsh is the founder and managing director of Pinpoint Research Services , a full-service market research and market intelligence consultancy based in Sydney. Tim can be contaced by e-mail at tw@pinpointresearch.com.au .
