COMMENTARY--What technologies have missed the mark this past year?
Another year almost over. Before we get to the prognostications about the Next Big Technology (I thought I'd get in early with this one!), what have been the Dogs of 2003? (I'm tempted to start with "everything", since it's been another generally slow year in the uptake of most technologies, but I'll try and be a little more specific!)
Software upgrades
Although Microsoft's server revenues grew healthily in 2003, IT managers are becoming cynical about new product releases and upgrades. It's now expected that a new product will have a number of bugs, some serious. It's not unusual for our MIS department to say "We'll wait until Service Pack 2" before we deploy a new server release. Anecdotally, we still see a lot of Windows NT servers that are reliably performing the same function they were a few years ago, and have the same (arguably greater) stability than the latest software release. There was a huge resistance in mid-2002 when Microsoft announced plans (Licensing 6 and Software Assurance) that committed customers to two- to three-year contracts that included the right to upgrade, rather than customers paying when they decided to upgrade.
Networking hardware
According to IDC data, spending on the network formed 6.2 percent of the IT budget, down from 8.4 percent in 2001 and forecast to increase slightly to 6.3 percent in 2004. Gartner also predicts a trend of people "doing more with their existing hardware", rather than investing in major technology refreshes. Cisco Systems--who virtually own the enterprise WAN networking space--reported a net decline in routing products of 11.4 percent and in switches of 0.9 percent in 2003. Conversely, Cisco's service revenues increased, reflecting a higher number of service contracts and greater installed base of equipment being services. Consistent with what we are seeing with our customers, upgrade cycles are being extended to four to five years. Customers are keeping their equipment longer, often with higher levels of maintenance and management, rather than replacing the entire network every three years. (Additionally, other than IP telephony, there are not many new applications driving the need for greater network QoS or resilience, that often necessitates a major technology refresh.)
Training
Down to new lows, only 2.2 percent of the IT budget is spent on training (from 6.2 percent in 2001). The outlook is not much better, either (three percent forecast in 2004). Despite a greater proportion of the budget being spent on internal staff, and less on external (contract) staff, training is an area that is seen as discretionary as IT budgets remain under pressure. IP telephony and wireless are among a handful of relatively new networking technologies that require new skills and training. There has been some consolidation in the IT training industry, driven by a lower demand for technical training.
Off-the-shelf network management
Management applications are complex to use, install, and maintain. Companies that purchase and deploy a "shrink-wrapped" product to solve all their network problems are generally disappointed. It takes more than technology to manage networks--people and processes are the other essential ingredients. The network is not getting any less complex and is supporting an increasing number of mission-critical applications (financial systems, voice, video, even storage all running over IP). It's a big ask for a single product to report, manage and troubleshoot all these multiple traffic and device types, and provide a snapshot of the overall infrastructure's health. While the outsourced network management market continues to enjoy strong growth, companies like BMC and IBM (with Tivoli) are experiencing declining to flat product revenues.
I'm sure I've missed a few... send me an e-mail if you have any "dogs" that deserve a mention: technologies which have just missed the point, or products which should have gone down well but are suffering the brunt of a weak market.
Oliver Descoeudres is marketing manager at network IP/Internet network infrastructure builder and solutions provider NetStar Australia.
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