The research company had predicted in February that m-commerce revenues in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) would exceed US$36 billion by 2004. However, in a new report released this month, M-commerce Opportunities in Asia, it expects the market to be worth only US$557 million by year end, and US$12.4 billion by 2005.
In the earlier report, IDC believed the provision of commercial 3G services by 2003 would drive the growth of the mobile data market, and this would in turn lead the shift from over-the-counter to "m-shop transactions."
In its latest report, it admitted that the success of mobile bill payment will be limited to places where the use of credit card is uncommon, and where the concept of the mobile wallet is relatively better-developed.
On the upside, IDC believes that as more operators around the region start to create compelling mobile payment services for the consumers, revenue from m-commerce transactions will grow.
-Smart (Communications) from the Philippines works with financial institutes to make cash download via mobile platform possible ... MobileOne (M1) in Singapore collects the payment of drinks via selected vending machines on behalf of its partner. The basic message is, operators have been rising to come up with services for (their) customers," said Rachel Lo, IDC's senior analyst (Communications Research), in an email interview.
According to the report, the m-commerce market in Asia will remain dominated by B2C (business-to-consumer) spending over the forecast period.
-The development of m-commerce will become increasingly matured when the concept of mobile wallet is introduced. However, instead of just replacing the credit card for transactions, the key to success is to link e-commerce to the service that providers could offer on the wireless platform. The early forms of m-commerce transactions are likely to comprise only low-priced items such as bus fare, train tickets, drinks (and) parking coupons/charges," stated Lo.
M-commerce in Asia is forecast to enjoy "good growth" next year, propelled primarily by the arrival of more GPRS-compliant terminals, coupled with what IDC calls "aggressive m-commerce development" in South Korea, where operators take the role of middleman to settle mobile transactions.
In addition, wireless content developers are placing more consumer-oriented applications on the flexible mobile platform, such as mobile banking, and ring-tone, logo and email downloads.
Enterprise mobile applications, such as inventory tracking and logistics management, are also being made available through co-operation between mobile operators and software providers.
