However, far from envisioning the highly connected home life, oft portrayed by broadband marketeers, indications are that most of this growth will be focussed on business rather than domestic markets.
Emilia Wasiak, communications analyst with International Data Corporation (IDC), believes this process will also be marked by a shift in technologies.
-The vast majority of new connections will be ADSL based rather than cable," Wasiak said. -At this stage there are five broadband service providers offering cable modem connectivity, and 80 in the ADSL market--so we are going to see a much more competitive market evolve."
Based on research IDC is conducting in this area, Wasiak predicts the plethora of ADSL broadband service providers will continue to focus on niche sectors of the business market. -At this stage most of these companies just provide services to business, while there are a few in the residential space," Wasiak said.
While she describes price as the biggest driver in the broadband market, Wasiak believes applications will play an increasingly important role when it comes to drawing in new customers.
-Hopefully we are seeing the wholesale pricing dispute resolved," Wasiak said. "With Telstra currently controlling 97 percent of the market, it would be good for the market to see more competition."
Without affordable pricing plans and something that even remotely resembles reliable service the broadband market is going to struggle for years to come. 3.5 million by 2006 sounds optimistic to say the least.