Christmas shopping over the Web was a novelty exercise. No one actually relied on it. did they? After all, only a handful etailers got it right in Australia, and even less in the US, according to APT Strategies e-business principal consultant Tony Rosenberg. Indeed, some local reports released earlier this year claimed that as many as one-fifth of Christmas presents ordered online by Australians in 1999 were delivered either after the big day or not at all.
The scary thing, says Rosenberg, is that those who let the industry down last year have not necessarily gone anywhere. Their money hasn't run out. Not quite. They can still hang on for another silly season, or part thereof. For those, Christmas 2000 could well be the lifeline they've been holding out for. Maybe this time they'll see a stronger consumer interest that spirals upward into higher revenues, better fulfillment capability, stronger customer interest... After all, business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce in Australia for Christmas 2000 is tipped to triple in fiscal volume from last year. And Christmas is expected to account for up to 40 percent of annual revenues for Australia's etailers.
But what if, for some reason, the numbers in some etailers' books just don't match up and they find they just can't afford to see this silly season through? Well, says Rosenberg, it's simple: No delivery, no presents, money quietly refunded sometime in early 2001, shortly after those less-than-capable players have called it quits mid-game. Too cynical? Think again.
In 2000, says Rosenberg, there is every chance this will happen. It happened last year, didn't it? Australian Consumers' Association policy officer for IT and communications, Charles Britton, agrees that the defining factor of e-Christmas 2000 will be the start of the inevitable etail market shakeout - fewer weaker players resulting in more business for the stronger players. Britton remains mostly positive about the consumer effects of this consolidation. He expects the stronger etail players will have learnt from their - and others' - mistakes made last Christmas. At the same time, the weaker players - those who didn't pay enough attention to timely and accurate delivery last year - should start to drop off.
Unfortunately, however, Britton warns that 2000 is probably too early in the piece to see any real clear division between the cans and the can'ts. As far as he's concerned, it might just take this festive season to push the losers past breaking point - the result of which everyone benefits from in the long term, except the losers themselves. Some "financially lean" players will inevitably "fall off the twig" at the eleventh hour abandoning gift orders already in place, but c'est la vie, says Britton, that's what consolidation is all about.
Rosenberg believes the players most likely to withstand the Christmas 2000 test are those that have taken active steps to partner with the fulfillment side of town. He cites dstore and wishlist.com.au as examples of this. This year dstore partnered with fulfillment company 3PP to hatch joint venture e-fill, while wishlist formed an alliance with service station franchise BP, which even took a 25 percent stake in the company. For those still keen on outsourcing deliveries, Australia Post will be the champion, Rosenberg says.
