NBN: 4K down, 7 million to go

Twisted Wire

Phil Dobbie

Tune in weekly for Twisted Wire, Phil Dobbie's weekly podcast on the tangled mess that is Australia's telecommunications industry.

Voted by

BMUJanuary 7th, 2012

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This week, the National Broadband Network Company (NBN Co) rather foolishly announced that it had achieved 4,000 connections — when its own corporate plan had 35,000 connections by last June. No wonder they got hammered by the press.

But the delays weren't unexpected. Nor do they mean that the whole project is off track. You'll hear NBN chief Mike Quigley explaining that delays in the roll-out doesn't mean that people have been sitting idly by. But the press reaction is just another example of how poorly the concept, the benefits and the approach have been sold to the Australian public.

This week, we look back at some of the NBN-related interviews from last year on Twisted Wire. We examine the two levels of debate; the shallow public debate about whether we should have an NBN at all (after all, it costs so much money), and the industry debate about the role of NBN, scope creep, pricing, product definitions and network design.

You'll hear from:

  • CEO of NBN Co, Mike Quigley
  • Liberal Senator Mary Jo Fisher
  • Advertising freelancer Jane Cairo
  • Primus Australia CEO, Tom Mazerski
  • Internode CEO, Simon Hackett
  • Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull

Next week, we look at the iiNet and Internode merger, and ask how many wholesale customers we expect NBN Co to have. Give us your views in advance by leaving a message on the Twisted Wire feedback line: 02 9304 5198.

Running time: 31 minutes, 35 seconds

Talkback

It should come as no surprise to anyone that the NBN is so far "off the pace". It will, I am sure, become yet another failure of the ALP Federal Government to deliver on what it has promised. At the present rate it will, if it has not already, become superseded by improved technology which will be cheaper and better. At $40 plus Billion the NBN is fast becoming yet another "White Elephant".

OldFellahOldFellah January 5th, 2012
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"become yet another failure"

You must be thinking of the coalitions patchwork plan which if implemented would be a colossal failure...

"become superseded by improved technology"

What technology would that be? Do you have any evidence to back up your claim?

"which will be cheaper and better."

How much cheaper and how much better?

"At $40 plus Billion the NBN is fast becoming yet another "White Elephant"."

Oh I see now you are this weeks Liberal party paid shill, hey 'OldFellah' I've got some bad news for you all your predecessors have already tried this one and failed due to the staleness of it, suggest you try something different or at the very least save it for the comments on The Australian or Andrew Bolt's blog as they are the only ones fooled by it.

Hubert CumberdaleHubert Cumberdale January 5th, 2012
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Hmmm.. 40 billion for 7 million potential connections. Assuming an unlikely takeup of 50%, that's $12000 per user. I pay $800 pa for my cable connection. That's 15 years for NBN to recover the cost. As for alternatives. How much has internet technology changed over the last 8 years? We can assume the equivalent level of progress over the rollout period. So, NBN will be a dinosaur when the roll out is complete.

tnkctnkc February 7th, 2012
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Is that you Alan?

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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lol, but Alan knows what's best for this country! He's been involved in the I.T industry for years!

zvezda91zvezda91 January 9th, 2012
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Just because Phil Dobbie and several "vested Interest" politicians have misread the NBN Corporate Plan (either intentionally or unintentionally), doesn't mean that this news story is correct.

In fact if you care to read the NBN Corporate Plan's forward estimates "properly", you'll see that NBNCo's rollout is pretty-much right on target. In fact the current take-up rate suggests that numbers will actually stream ahead of target in the not-to-distant future.

EmmettBEmmettB January 6th, 2012
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Irrespective of whether it's greenfield or brownfield site, my point was (press the play button) that 4,000 is not an impressive number so why publicise it. As I say in the 5th sentence - "the press reaction is just another example of how poorly the concept, the benefits and the approach have been sold to the Australian public" - that was my point. But everyone, it seems, wants to get bogged down arguing the numbers.

phildobbiephildobbie January 6th, 2012
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I agree Phil.

I believe the NBN is a fantastic concept for Australia, which Labor is not selling well, but in saying that, having little help to do so.

Whereas the opposition and their allies in News Ltd (who obviously can see their empire being threatened by digital media) are doing a sterling job at, well... lying through their teeth (and no that isn't here-say)....

http://www.broadbandexpert.com.au/broadband-news/broadband-news/concern-expressed-over-daily-telegraph-nbn-reports_774137

Sadly, the majority of us dumb Aussies are swallowing the BS and loving the taste.

BetaBeta January 6th, 2012
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Rupert Murdoch actually stated that high speed broadband would benefit his company greatly, not the other way around

deteegodeteego January 8th, 2012
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Yes and you believe him, priceless.

BetaBeta January 9th, 2012
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"it will, if it has not already, become superseded by improved technology which will be cheaper and better."

Seems the OldFellah is a fan of Allan Jones & his "superior Ultrafast German Laser Beams" & with a simliar IQ.

grump3grump3 January 6th, 2012
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LOL grump3, I already asked if he was actually Alan and going by the stunned mullet silence, I think we are onto something...!

BetaBeta January 6th, 2012
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Amazingly foolish of you to ignore that fact that this is Brownfields, Sat & Wireless not the intended 35k BOT which is up to negotiations and the caveat is outlined in their corporate plan. Your article is factual inaccurate.
Please refer to page 15 & 16.
http://www.nbnco.com.au/assets/documents/nbn-co-3-year-gbe-corporate-plan-final-17-dec-10.pdf

All for you reporting them not meeting their target come June '12 but this is just FUD.

MuppetMuppet January 5th, 2012
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"But the press reaction is just another example of how poorly the concept, the benefits and the approach have been sold to the Australian public."
This is a fairly narrow view of the problem. In my opinion, the general public simply do not want to understand complex undertakings such as the NBN, let alone comprehend the makeup of takeup targets, and why the currently discussed numbers are not the disaster that anti-NBN'ers would like us to believe.
When there is such ignorance on a grand scale, it makes it very easy for news outlets to cater for the masses with ignorance inspiring reporting.

sen7ientsen7ient January 5th, 2012
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Is it the role of the media to “cater for the masses” or to publish “journalism”? One is beginning to think if the media implodes in the face of the digital revolution, will it matter?

Richard UreRichard Ure January 5th, 2012
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Oh don't the rusted on come out of the woodwork!

The NBN is a disgrace, no less. Idiotic plan to spend billions of dollars on something that, as evidenced by the takeup rate, most Australians do not want or need.

Listen fellers, the majority of Australians are not lost and lonely gameboys who spend most of their life locked on to their computers as you do. Get a life.....

BacksliderBackslider January 5th, 2012
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Is this you Backslider? http://timsviews.com/images/moron.jpg

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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Don’t mind him Beta, he's just bitter because he lives in a satellite only area and wont have access to the 100/40mbps plans.

Hubert CumberdaleHubert Cumberdale January 5th, 2012
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HNY Hubert

:-)

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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*sigh*

The bitter mentality of the anti-NBNer.

To give another with differing views, a thumbs down for simply wishing another person, happy new year!

Either you just saw my name and voted or my friend (and I say friend with complete insincerity) you really are a sad and sorry individual.

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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That all they have now, notice how they go into hibernation mode when asked a few simple questions, even they realise they position they have on the NBN is a flimsy one, it's all political and/or emotional for them.

Happy New Year to you too btw :-)

Hubert CumberdaleHubert Cumberdale January 6th, 2012
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In 1872 some nut called Charles Todd spent a fortune building an overland telegraph line from Adelaide to Darwin. As some one pointed out in the Age this morning - when it was finished, it only had 2 subscribers!!

bbtbbt January 5th, 2012
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I agree with Backslider, there should have been some look at the demographics for the first - current rollout. Its probably hooked up to some nursing home but i still cant even get ADSL living less than 5km away from the centre of a large regional centre.

Stevie nicksStevie nicks January 5th, 2012
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"Its probably hooked up to some nursing home but i still cant even get ADSL living less than 5km away from the centre of a large regional centre".

And without the NBN that would/will probably never change. Refer to ozscot's comment!

Anything else.

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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I live in North Canberra, about 5kms from Black Mountain Tower in Harrison. I have just been told that I cannot get ANY broadband above 2mB ever ever ever. Telstra has made a mess of the newer parts of Canberra. I hope the NBN comes soon

ozscotozscot January 5th, 2012
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Add me to the list of those educated on the topic and the technology who are disgusted at the colossal waste of money that the NBN is and will continue to be. Aside from faster gaming, movie on demand and HD video conferencing can anyone seriously suggest a use for fibre to each premise? And don't spit out the 'build it and the amazing future use will magically appear' line ...this is not the dawn of the industrial revolution. We simply do not need to spend this much money to achieve the

boatenvyboatenvy January 5th, 2012
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So you're educated on the technology and you think HD video conferencing is a novelty? Do you have any idea what this can achieve for businesses in regards to advertising? It provides an avenue to be able to promote products in a more interactive way. Television is not as targeted as the internet can be.

And then there's education. Online lectures can be viewed live from across the other side of the country in real time making education accessible to all Australians.

Also an interesting use by mining companies who can't find workers to drive their dump trucks. They have now made trucks that are remote control and can be operated from Sydney if required.

It's about making the country more efficient. Which is worth billions to the economy. There are plenty more examples and because you can't think of them says more about how educated you really are about the technology??

omegaomega January 5th, 2012
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The NBN will bring the Cloud to Australia, this will allow consumers to actually make use of shared storage for more then just a few small document. For business working from home becomes a reality, using Cloud based VOIP PBX people could even have their office extension at home with access to the corporate network much more responsive then possible today with the best ADSL2 connections.

Call centers in Australia could be distributed, no need for expensive real estate, or even maintain there own hardware, using the Cloud and NBN, this becomes a real possibility. The technology for both corporate cloud solutions including distributed PBX are available today, but ADSL speeds makes this solution unworkable. I am sure there are more possible uses for the NBN beyond gaming and movies, though why the entertainment value is played as a negative when this also opens up opportunities for the enterprising to create new business opportunities. People who can't see beyond what they can do today on the internet and possibilities the NBN opens lack either imagination or knowledge of technology.

BMUBMU January 6th, 2012
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Another real world example, I was on deployment at one of our more regional client sites when a problem occured where I needed to send a copy of some sample data back to the main office interstate. This office only had access to ADSL2, so any transfers under a couple of gigs I could just FTP upload overnight. In some cases I needed to send anywhere between 20 to 150 GB of data, and being time sensitive, the only option was to put all the data on tape and get it express mailed overnight. Imagine if I had a 40mbps uplink...

RamboRambo January 6th, 2012
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imagine if I already had 60Mbps ($100 for an extra $15)...ohh wait I already do and no $50billion required. Its a waste.

galootgaloot January 7th, 2012
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Imagine that like most Australians you live an area where you can only get ADSL at 6 Mbps or less upload. Funny how you see anything without an immediate benefit to you as a waste.

SeanASeanA January 7th, 2012
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Here's just a couple of links to uses over and above the standard anti-NBN repertoire boatenvy.

But of course, asking a question and actually wanting to know/accepting the answer, are sometimes two entirely different things!

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/409627/telehealth_can_reduce_deaths_by_45_study_shows

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/244770,opinion-broadband-is-needed-and-needed-now.aspx

BetaBeta January 5th, 2012
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The debate, I thunk, has moved on from whether we need ultra fast broadband or not. I think the Opposition is focusing on the cost of delivering it.

phildobbiephildobbie January 7th, 2012
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I disagree Phil. Abbott's recent comments are still labelling the NBN as a 'white elephant'. He also criticises take up rates suggesting that fast broadband is not required. Perhaps someone in the media should help clear this up by asking him a few questions about it. Like for instance;

If he believes fast broadband is not required or will be a white elephant, why is his party's policy to spend money on improving it?

This is why the debate has not moved on in the general public, because no-one is prepared to get to the bottom of Abbott's hypocrisy.

omegaomega January 7th, 2012
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You have a good point omega the coalition are the ones saying faster speeds are not needed but what they are proposing is faster than what we currently have as well. If they get their way they'll have to explain why such an "upgrade" is needed if what we have is sufficient and they have to tell us what apps are available to take advantage of the faster speeds. They should not get a free pass on this issue just because the speeds they are proposing are much lower than what is possible on the NBN.

Hubert CumberdaleHubert Cumberdale January 7th, 2012
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You are over simplifying the thing into a black and white matter, which makes your argument pointless

What is one persons "fast" broadband is another persons "slow", and vice versa, and everywhere inbetween

The opposition is simply stating that there very little demand for broadband at the speeds that the NBN is deliver, and the cost to deliver that is extortionate. Their agenda is still on improving broadband speeds, bit not at such a massive cost and not in such an anti-competitive/destructive behaviour

If you want to disprove someones argument, at least do it correctly. When the opposition talks about fast, they mean speeds of >24mbs. They already have it part of their policy to provide a universal minimum of 12/1.

Twisting someones point to disprove them is pathetic

deteegodeteego January 7th, 2012
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Nice try.. What is pathetic and hypocritical is an opposition leader criticising take up rates (meaning the speed requirements of the individual are irrelevant) while at the same time saying that the country needs a minimum of 12/1??? Unless of course he believes that people would be signing up if only the speeds weren't so fast???

What is also pathetic is your defence of a political party that criticises the cost of a project while not being prepared to have their own policy costed?

This is not twisting someones point, it is merely pointing out the facts and asking the question, why? It would also be nice to get an answer that is coherent and not hypocritical for a change as well.

omegaomega January 7th, 2012
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Better not hold your breath and wait for such an answer from deteego omega.

BetaBeta January 7th, 2012
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You are twisting someones point, even under Labors own definition of super fast broadband is anything that provides speeds above 24mbits, it was in their legislation that they put to parliament in order to prevent companies from competing against NBNCo

I am simply saying you do not know what you are talking about and you are simply twisting the coalitions position around to make yourself look better, its obvious to anyone who is not a zealot

You are not stating facts at all, the opposition leader was stating that there is no demand for super fast services, that is services above 24mbit USING LABOR'S OWN DEFINITION.

THat has no bearing whatsoever for demand on services less than 24mbit.

Again, regarding them not having their own policy costed, they are not able to. The liberal party, you know, happens to be in opposition. They have no access to Tresury, or Productivity Commission, or any of the other government departments, or even funding required to get a 3rd party to analyze it. You will have to wait until election.

This has been the case throughout the history of Australian politics, they only reason you are throwing slag at the liberal party is you don't agree with their view.

At least if you are going to criticize them, get some balls and do it properly

deteegodeteego January 8th, 2012
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Deal... and I'll go one further.

The current opposition are the most backward thinking, negative, deceitful luddites in recent memory and someone such as you who has made IT his career should be ****ing ashamed of himself, for selling out his IT principles because of some misguided political subserviency.

BetaBeta January 9th, 2012
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Have you ever heard of a tradie finishing on time and under budget?
When have public works or buildings ever been finished on time.
Its become expected and normal business.

wheresjohnnywheresjohnny January 5th, 2012
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wheresjohnny,the brisbane tunnel 6 months early under budget and still no one uses it company in recievership nbn will be the same

kiwimickkiwimick January 5th, 2012
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Something about this whole project stinks, has everyone forgotten this is the government who tried to force a filter for the Internet and you need to use their routers to use the NBN. That and it's ridiculous, fibre to each home? Crazy when many won't adopt the technology for 10-20 years or in some cases never. Why not fibre to the node first so you can start by propping up the sagging pile of dung that is our current communications infrastructure?

yjimkyjimk January 6th, 2012
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FTTN (fibre to the node) first, FTTP (fibre to the premises) 10-20 years later follows the logic of:

My current house is falling down. Let me spend $50000 now to stop the roof leaking, repair the holes in the walls, etc. Then I can spend $300000 in a few years to knock it down and build another one that will actually have enough bedrooms to house my new family. Sad the $50000 investment is now buldozed. Wouldn't it be better to just spend $300000 now and build a new house?

or...

Highway X winds its way through the mountains. It is slow and congested and when it rains, various sections become flooded and impassable. It is full of potholes. Lets spend $10Bn adding a few overtaking lanes, and resurfacing the worst of the pavement. When we are finished it will still be slow due to all the corners, and may still be impassable when it rains. And in 10 years we will need to spend $100Bn on a freeway anyway due to increase in traffic, and the need to get through when it's raining. Sad the $10Bn we spent on the old road is now kinda wasted. Why not build the freeway now?

or...

Our current telecommunications copper network is slow, in many cases can't meet todays demands, and sometimes gets flooded when it rains and stops working. Lets spend $4.7Bn on FTTN for an increase in download speed to possibly 100MB/s which is almost certainly as fast as the design will EVER allow, and dismally slow upload speeds. After 10-20 years, the network will be too slow for demand, and with no other upgrade path we can rip out all the street side cabinets and supporting electricity infrastructure, and spend and extra $42Bn replacing it with... a FTTP network. Shame we wasted $4.7Bn on FTTN, when the govt of the day could have already built a FTTP network let it pay itself off through subscriber revenue by now.

Just let the govt build the NBN now.

JonoJono January 6th, 2012
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Ok people need to understand what the NBN is before they call it crazy and stupid.

|...and you need to use their routers to use the NBN.

The NBN will be sold by your local ISP and other wholesalers, so most of the network will not be under government control.

|... Crazy when many won't adopt the technology for 10-20 years or in some cases never

Copper and HFC will be essentially turned off for almost everyone by then, so you will be using the NBN or a wireless alternative whether you like it or not.

RamboRambo January 6th, 2012
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The network build for FTTN and FTTH/FTTP are very different, from the amount of fibers laid to the node vs the number of fibers laid to run to each home. There is not a direct upgrade path, unless you lay enough fibers to the node to cover all the properties that may require FTTP in the future. If you are already laying that much fiber why not go the last mile?

BMUBMU January 6th, 2012
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Nevermind all the backbiting and mud slinging... all I want to know is when can I get SOMETHING to my place.

So all you snaky lil anti-NBNers and rabid pro-NBNers, grow up, stop the snide little comments and actually do something to fix the situation. Or come and build something useful in Murray Bridge!

PhijznetPhijznet January 6th, 2012
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"...most of the network will not be under government control." But the ISPs are piping all their data through a central network and we as a people are having all our information piped through a single physical system with distribution network with centralised control which those in power can influence their control, by doing all sorts of things, many of may yet even be possible for they have no yet been invented yet. Transparent traffic filtering (Internet filtering) is but one example... now or in the future.

The blatancy of it is astounding: Once this is in, we're expected to give up the networks we have for what will (at present) the only real benefit is the ability of lawmakers (and others) to limit freedom of speech and the ability of Humans to interact without borders, be they practical, moral or intellectual.

dismayed_onedismayed_one January 6th, 2012
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Having worked at ISP's I can categorically state that legal traffic interception already exists in EVERY ISP.

You're making a mountain out of an existing molehill. They don't need a massive network roll out conspiriacy when they have existing laws.

mynemyne January 6th, 2012
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I thought the X-Files ended about 10 years ago, apparently not... "the truth is out there", better take a tin foil hat just in case!

BetaBeta January 6th, 2012
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fibre is being done as a way to finally do what is needed in this country, break telstras hold on wholesale control - see south brisbane-

its also best practise - wireless is too noisy and you have the whole "RF causes cancer" group . there is enough opposition to placing radio towers near schools, imagin the crying when everyone needs a tower next door to get speeds.

wireless fails on environmental and technological points -STILL needs fiber everywhere.

voltare2voltare2 January 8th, 2012
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Indeed voltare2. Just ask those who say wireless is what we need do they want the much needed tower in their yard or in front of their house and wait for the response

BetaBeta January 8th, 2012
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The. Opposition regional and country members want their electorates to be first to be included in the rollout, but their party is opposed to the network. Their does seem to be an inconsistency somewhere.

Bee jayBee jay January 9th, 2012
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I believe the words you were looking for were utter hypocrisy, Bee jay

BetaBeta January 9th, 2012
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The real questions are, Will Telstra build Fibre (since they own the ducts), Will Telstra allow competitors to install in their ducts.
Are we going to have a repeat of the Optus Foxtel debacle where providers chase each other down the streets to massively overbuild in some areas whilst not providing services in other areas.
None of the anti NBN crowd have proposed any solutions for competitive broadband a service which by its very nature is a monopoly, it's quite clear that it's more efficient not to overbuild competitive wiring schemes, How does one make a monopoly competitive?
If we are going to have a national fibre policy and the Telco’s won’t build then what scale of subsidies are going to be required to incentivise them.
Most of the anti NBN crowd aren’t arguing about policy structures their arguing that fibre is unnecessary. It’s clear from international programmes that virtually no government elsewhere in the world believes that.
I believe that expansion of IPTV service sales will allow NBN to at least recover its costs even if construction cost blows out. That efficiencies produced by the NBN will produce substantial cost savings for consumers business and Government.

Kevin CobleyKevin Cobley January 10th, 2012
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4 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

I could not resist :-)

I remember that website well, you must too, it was full of so many comedy pieces.

4 hours ago by Hubert Cumberdale on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

Bazaarvoice acquires rival PowerReviews; adds SMBs to CRM portfolio: By Andrew Nusca | May 25, 2012, 4:42am PDT ... http://t.co/WngvcsxL

MikeSkoey, what a naive collection of words. How do you know what context Paul has been working in. How do you know he implemented whats ...

5 hours ago by AnonymousCIO on 30 servers to 7: BUPA redoes virtualisation

Post 'social' improved speed to information and context http://t.co/7u9odG7N

HC, don't be so mean to Todd...

He is actually one who may not be just politically opposed ;-)

5 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

No, Quigley is, as CEO's of all companies are, quite simply motivated for his company to be a professional and successful company, as it ...

5 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

Forced lol. btw I tried to load your website www.nonbn.org but all I got was a "website unavailable" I really wanted to donate some mone...

5 hours ago by Hubert Cumberdale on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

http://t.co/aDIOqQ4c http://t.co/NeUOcLt5

What has the debt level got to do with what plan people chose? I'd point out that the debt wont be $50 billion but i'd be wasting my bre...

6 hours ago by mstat_z on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

Quigley is entirely politically motivated, this is headline grabbing and nothing more. The statistic should read - "of those who took up ...

6 hours ago by merarischroeder on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

RT @zdnetaustralia: NSW outs datacentre deal details: http://t.co/A1Cj4Eot ^LH

"the artificial speed tiers will mean that on average speeds the country will be left well behind others and social inequality will incre...

6 hours ago by Hubert Cumberdale on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

The most insulting aspect of the ads is CommBank's expectation that we would accept a bank account with fees unless you deposit $2000/mth...

6 hours ago by gikku on Triple J's Spotify conundrum

NBN users opt for 100Mbps - Communications - News http://t.co/3A84AASP

That's right. Quigley DOES know best. So when Quigley presents a plan to the shareholders (us) and says "this is our worst case scenario...

6 hours ago by Hubert Cumberdale on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

"NBNCo predict 13% of premises passed by fibre will opt for wireless because it is cheaper." Which leaves 87% well above the 70% estimate...

6 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

HC the critics said the NBN wouldn't make a cent (yes, yes here comes the, it's still in debt arguments - we know what you meant and so d...

7 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

Look what you did Gwyn...LOL. Yes, but as you have been told umpteen times Mathew (whenever you sprout the same old repetitive lines abo...

7 hours ago by Beta on NBN users opt for 100Mbps

10 cool iPad apps you'll wish you found sooner | 2 of 10 http://t.co/M9SXbnJS via @zite

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RT @zdnetaustralia: NSW outs datacentre deal details: http://t.co/A1Cj4Eot ^LH

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