2006 has opened for Microsoft with flabby Xbox 360 sales in Japan, a fog bank of boredom hiding Vista from serious interest and an unpatched Windows exploit that can bring your computer to its knees just by looking at an image on a Web site. That follows a 2005 which ended with Bill Gates launching what may be Microsoft's online services strategy -- if only anyone could understand his presentation -- and the company's first full year of single-digit growth. Then there's the millions of euros per day fine from Europe and the Korean antitrust ruling.
Still, look on the bright side. We can expect the launch of Office 12, which is undeniably the most exciting twelfth version of any productivity software, and a plethora of back-office products. Then there's the new strategy for Media Center, which is finally showing some respectable numbers on the basis of bundling the software on anything that might one day get a TV tuner plugged into it. And then there'll be all those Google innovations to try and keep up with.
Good Year: AMD
AMD has played a smart game of late, and it's getting ready to do battle in the mobile world. Intel's got good products but AMD's kept a lead in areas such as 64-bit and chip interconnect buses -- and it's been particularly smart in taking full advantage of the way Intel has grown the chip market into new areas. The better Intel does, the better AMD does.
At the top end, AMD's at no disadvantage either in raw CPU power or in its willingness to do deals. The move towards massively multiprocessor supercomputers may not be soaking up chips in mass market numbers, but it provides some substantial numbers for sales to point to and engineers to back up their pitches with.
Will Dell succumb? That would make 2006 an exceptional year for AMD, so don't expect Intel to let it happen.
Bad Year: Itanium
This is a bit like predicting a bad year for the Ukrainian gas industry. With AMD producing more power per pound at the top end and the new low-energy server chips due to pour out of Intel Israel and smack the lower end up a bit, Itanium is more irrelevant than ever. It is possible to attend five straight Intel briefings in a row that mention enterprise computing and not hear the I word mentioned once by the blueshirts. But then, the project's been around in some form or another since 1988 and you've got to really, really want to believe in something that doesn't fly for that long. It's currently selling around seven thousand chips a quarter -- by some distance the least popular high-end server processor -- and Montecito's final arrival in 2006 may not make that much difference.
That's if it get launched. With some customers actually going back to the HP PA-RISC chip it's supposed to be replacing, and management changing within Intel, there's a bullet with Itanium written on it just waiting to be bitten. The company can be tough -- it shot Timna through the head mere weeks before launch -- and it needs to be.
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