More than five years ago the launch of Microsoft Windows XP -- and its considerably improved features and reliability compared with Windows 98 and 2000 -- made a comprehensive desktop rollout a no-brainer for companies. The other options -- still-nascent Linux, IBM's all-but-dead OS/2, or unstable DOS-based versions of Windows -- were all far from desirable.
Now, as the world gears up for the launch of Windows Vista, the conclusion may not be so cut and dry. Certainly, Vista is set to be feature-packed and reliable, and many companies will move to the new platform as a matter of course. However, Linux has come a long way in five years, with the concerted effort of hobbyists around the world supplemented by the resources of tech heavyweights to push its desktop features to near-parity with Windows XP.
Because of these improvements many companies may take the impending upgrade as an opportunity to reconsider the role of Linux in their overall desktop strategy. It is less expensive, of course, and seamless integration with Windows servers and improved management tools has made it much easier to integrate into existing environments. Furthermore, Linux's lower resource requirements may allow it to run on existing desktops that will need replacement for any upgrade to Windows Vista.
If companies find that Linux and related open-source software offer a better overall value proposition than Windows Vista, 2006 could well be the tipping point for desktop Linux. That would be a major coup for desktop Linux -- long the poor cousin to server-based Linux, which has exploded into the corporate consciousness over the past five years to the point where it is actually remarkable not to be using it.
Despite its popularity on the back end most companies remain reluctant to consider the potential role for Linux on their desktops. IDC has forecast that Linux will grow from three-percent desktop market share (17 million PCs worldwide) in 2003 to seven percent (42.6 million) in 2008, yet that still represents just a small portion of all PC sales, most comparable to the decidedly niche penetration of Apple's Mac OS X.
Government agencies are leading the charge in Linux deployments in Australia. The NSW Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) for one, expects to trim desktop management costs by 20 percent after rolling out 3000 Linux desktops.
NSW Office of State Revenue CIO Mike Kennedy recently announced plans to start scoping for a 600-strong Linux desktop rollout after expressing dissatisfaction with Microsoft's planned Vista licensing arrangements. And tender documents from the NT Department of Corporate Information Systems indicates it is seriously considering Linux "to substantially lower the overall cost to government" of its 8000 desktops during a refresh in June.
The article described: "Furthermore, Linux's lower resource requirements may allow it to run on existing desktops that will need replacement for any upgrade to Windows Vista."
I believe that this is the only characteristic that Linux may get the go ahead. Most PC's (Greater than 500MHz) generally run todays business applications with little or no problems. If you get a Pentium III-500 with 256MB of RAM, you are set when it comes to Windows XP, Office 2003, Microsoft .NET 2003 etc...
When Windows Vista's requirements are beyond that of what "standard" onboard video cards provided in Motherboards (ie 32/64MB shared with RAM), and the fact that an AGP video card (starting from $80RRP), wouldn't the IT departments be having fun arguing their case that the general workstation needs a new 128MB Video Card, another stick of 512MB of RAM, just to boot Windows Vista. Take into account that Office 2005 is also completely changed (GUI wise) and there goes the 2006 ICT budget.
Although I am a linux supporter, in the business workplace, you need to be able to rely on proven technology, and Microsoft is proven, reliable technology. When Office 2003 and Windows XP Service Pack 2 came out, I really thought how good Microsoft actually is. I can't think of a more easier, more productive combination of software. To change that is only going to worsen people's views.
Anyway, Linux will NEVER dominate the PC market, Microsoft just has too many fingers in too many pies to lose their dominant position