At this time I don't think so. On the consumer side, it's not very hard to load two or three or four different clients on your computer. There is a hassle, but it's not big. Then you have people who are really having a hassle using Trillian and others. The pressure from consumers is not very high at this time.
From the consumer perspective, nobody has proven that there is a moneymaking opportunity by making two or three networks connect. I don't think you or me would pay a couple more bucks to AOL to connect with MSN buddies today. We would rather load an MSN client and an AOL client and not pay for it.
Then where is IM going? Will it remain a service with millions of loyal users and no way to make money off them?
The biggest observation I've had in the last two or three months is that IM is the perfect disruptive technology to telecom providers. If you look at current telecom providers, none of them have the end users' identity like MSN, AIM and Yahoo do. If you look at what's going on in the addressing schema for the end user, it's going to be their identity and not their phone number that matters because of the penetration of broadband and Internet into homes.
In a sense they are the future local exchange carriers. That will create the connectivity requirements. The more value-added services on these respective networks, the more there will be a need for connectivity because it will become essential for people's lives.
You're saying that AOL, MSN and Yahoo will become phone companies?
Yes. I'm saying that Microsoft, AOL and Yahoo will become the equivalent of phone companies of the future, and with a reach that will go beyond their reach today. That reach will be global and without boundaries. With phone carriers, they can only go where the wire goes.
Can they make money like the phone companies?
I think the next thing that will happen is they will bundle their value-added communications services with the Internet access businesses.
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