Moving forward
In the past year or so, some progress has been made towards providing Linux equivalents to common Windows applications: Ximian's Evolution mimics Outlook's look and feel, and is compatible with Exchange servers, for example, and Sun Microsystems' StarOffice can read and write Microsoft Office files. CodeWeavers' Crossover Office software even allows some Windows applications to be installed on a Linux machine.
But these solutions don't necessarily add up to desktop success, in Kusnetzky's view. "Organisations are still likely to select the most popular applications even though applications having similar capabilities exist," he argued.
And while some Linux distributions may run Windows applications--including Lindows and Xandros, which incorporates Crossover Office--users may find themselves without technical support if they take this route.
"Are Lindows or Xandros going to be able to support Microsoft Office on Linux? I think not. Only Microsoft knows enough about how that suite works to support it," Kusnetzky said.
A year ago, it was widely thought that dissatisfaction with Microsoft and its draconian Licensing 6 policy would help drive users to alternative platforms, but this does not appear to have had much impact so far, according to industry observers.
However, those who have not chosen to sign up for a new two to three year agreement with Microsoft may be eyeing alternatives during their next round of purchasing, experts say.
The good news is that businesses and consumers are showing an increasing interest in Linux on the desktop. For example Red Hat, the largest Linux distributor, was saying at the beginning of 2002 that it was not interested in desktop software, but changed its tune with the release of version 8 of its software.
This included applications aimed at smoothing out the desktop user experience, including a feature called Bluecurve, which unified the look and feel of the two main desktop environments, KDE and Gnome.
Germany's SuSE has also pledged a desktop drive, and will begin incorporating Windows compatibility software. HP is planning to support desktops with Mandrake Linux, a distribution which has always had a focus on ease-of-use.
Most promising, however, may be the interest of governments in adopting Linux and other open-source software in order to stimulate local development and keep the software world from becoming too homogenous.
Germany and France have begun using open source in various government branches, and the UK is also leaning in this direction. A report in October revealed that the US Department of Defense already heavily depends on various forms of open-source software.
IDC expects that Linux will become the No. 2 desktop OS in the next year or two, surpassing the Mac OS, and will continue to hold this rank for the remainder of the company's five-year forecast.
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