Is Linux on the move?

Over the last year, many CIOs have moved from the sidelines to the playing field in the search for a successor to IBM MVS, AS/400 O/S, Sun Solaris, HP/UX, and Microsoft Windows NT/2000 in the data centre. Based on recent announcements and rollouts, that successor might just turn out to be Linuxââ,¬"the one OS that will run on all today's hardware.

Let's look at the recent uptake in Linux adoption and examine how it could affect decisions to use this upstart OS in your enterprise.

The hits just keep on coming

Linux is a natural choice for enterprises, such as retail systems and cable networks, with potentially thousands of limited function devices. In May, Sherwin Williams, one of the largest paint manufacturers and distributors in North America, announced that IBM had assisted it in creating a new retail sales system for its 2,500 stores. It will be one of the largest rollouts of a Linux-based system to date.

In addition to handling its point-of-sale operations, the system will run the company's colour-match software and let employees communicate using Linux-based e-mail and browser software. Sherwin Williams will save millions of dollars in software licensing feesââ,¬"funds it can funnel toward systems development and customer service. Running the incredibly efficient Linux on less powerfulââ,¬"and less expensiveââ,¬"user terminals at the endpoints of its network will save additional dollars that drop directly to the bottom line.

Linux is also gaining momentum in financial services, a traditional UNIX stronghold. Both Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch have converted major systems to Linux. And don't think that Microsoft is the only one affected by the Linux revolution. In the financial services arena, Sun has a big bulls-eye on its back. As more software companies provide UNIX product versions, financial services companies are discovering that they can provide the same services on commodity Intel PCs using Linux instead of the Sun SparcStations and Sun operating systems they've been buying for years.

Winners and losers

As more markets warm to Linux, there will be repercussions across the tech industry. If Linux adoption were to accelerate rapidly, some companies are in a position to lose big, while some others could become the big winners.

The losers: Sun, then Microsoft

Most Linux lovers are Microsoft bashers. But the reality is that Linux hurts Sun much more in the short term.

Linux adoption is a no-brainer for companies who can run the same software on inexpensive Intel machines with Linux as they can on expensive Sun machines running Solaris. Microsoft doesn't have a significant presence in the retail market anyway, which has been dominated by fixed-function machines from companies like NCR and IBM. These are the devices that have been targeted by manufacturers using Linux as an embedded OS.

But in the long run, Linux may dramatically lower Microsoft's chances of taking over the data centre with Windows 2000, the .NET Server, and its .NET Framework. That's because there are so many companies that would benefit from having a data-centre OS standard that nobody owns and requires no licensing fees.

The winners: IBM, Dell, and software makers

Who would benefit from such an open source standard? The big winner would be IBM, which has made a billion-dollar investment in Linux, which is just beginning to pay off. IBM's hardware, consulting services, and software groups all benefit from the adoption of Linux in the data centre.

In the server and workstation (not desktop PC) market, companies like Dell and HP/Compaq have the chance to supplant thousands of existing servers and workstations with commodity machines running Linux. Of course, software manufacturers have to make products available on Linux/Intel platforms, and that appears to be happening.

Today's CIOs are more likely to consider using Linux as part of their infrastructure. I attribute this, in great measure, to the investment that hardware and software manufacturers have made to get their products ready to run with Linux.

An ironic fate for Linux?

Adopters of Linux-based data centres will also have to deal with a key strategic issue. The novelty of working on an OS as a public service will ultimately wear off. When the open source fever dies down, one of two things is likely to happen: First, the companies benefiting most from its existence--processor manufacturers, hardware OEMs, IBM, set top manufacturers, and software makersââ,¬"will have to fund a new company with a profit motive for enhancing the operating system, if Linux is to grow.

The second likely scenario is that these same companies will create their own enhanced, incompatible Linux versions in order to differentiate themselves. Linux could become like UNIX in the 80s. And the need for a unified platform on which to build large volume applications will drive people toward their only commercially viable optionââ,¬"Microsoft Windows.

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©2001 TechRepublic, Inc.

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Talkback 3 comments

    Your article has one glaring m ...Anonymous -- 04/07/02

    Your article has one glaring mistake.

    If any provider creates their own proprietry version of Linux, without providing the source code, they will be breaking the GPL software license.

    So unlike the 80s, Linux will not splinter up. Do some basic research in future.

    No fragmentation with Linux wi ...Con Zymaris -- 04/07/02

    No fragmentation with Linux will occur.

    The reasons that Unix fragmented are as follows:

    1) Closed source Unix implementations,

    2) Dispirate and incompatible Kernels from numerous different originators

    3) All main suppliers of Unix were for-profit companies, which sought to differentiate solely on the basis of making their platforms incompatible with their competitors, effectively neutering the market growth potential for Unix from the start, and entrapping users

    4) As time went on, the fragmentation grew worse.

    None of these are a factor with Linux and there are the reasons why Linux will _not_fragment like Unix did, much to the alarm and chagrin of companies who cry wolf in this regard, like Microsoft: Here's why:

    1) As 'Anonymous' posted in the previous submission, the GPL precludes closed-source forking. Period.

    2) Remarkable as it might seem, there is one, and only one 'stamped' kernel, with patches supplied which allow Linux to run on every single conceivable modern computing device, from wrist-watch to $100 million super-cluster. No other operating system (with the excetion of Linux's open source relative, NetBSD) has been able to achieve anything approaching this feat. Linux can become _the_ platform for all devices.

    3) One of the best-packaged distributions of Linux, is Debian, which is from a decidedly not-for-profit organisation. _If_ a catastraphe befalls the IT industry, and all commercial suppliers of operating systems (including Suse and Microsoft) fall, Debian will still be there, with source code in the hands of millions, worldwide.

    4) Unlike with Unix(tm), Linux distributions and Linux in general is becoming _less_ differantiated with each passing year, viz: the UnitedLinux announcement, and the rapid accretion of consensus around the Linux Standard Base (LSB).

    History is not repeating itself. While corporations worldwide may have short memories and often fail to heed Santayana's warning about doom befalling those who fail to learn from the mistakes of history, we, the IT community have no such problems. We were there 20 years ago, and will not let anything similar happen to Linux, for unlike Unix(tm) which belonged to AT&T, Linux is ours. This makes a world of difference

    I have on main word "JAVA ...a cull -- 20/07/02

    I have on main word "JAVA"
    how many of you developers of java programs and sites are looking forward to 2004 im not and im just a microsoft user. Microsoft have just incorporated java just to keep users happy for the short term.
    LINUX will been on the move cause people are sick of the lack of respect for the people that go to uni to learn java and now they are going to have a gross debt of about 30,000 maby more.

    DOS that was good for programers some people i know still have 95 just so they can make programs easily. Soon linux will be the programers os. so if microsoft dont look after the needs of people like this then they will perish. Linux was regarded as a flop when it first came out so was microsoft. Look at them now so microsoft is in strife.

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