Here's some help on where to spend (or not to spend) your IT budget in the coming year.
Following from last month's tongue-in-cheek look at the lessons from last year, I have consulted with wiser people than me (our engineers) to look a bit deeper at the technologies that will impact business in 2003 and the next few years.
It's been said for quite a while that -next year" will be the year where IP telephony really gains serious momentum. I think we're finally at that point: IP telephony is becoming accepted as the replacement for the PABX. In some cases the PABX still has a few years of useful life, but we're seeing an increasing number of organisations deploying IP telephony in conjunction with a traditional PABX to take advantages of IP voice applications. Video over IP will also benefit from a voice-capable network infrastructure, especially in the current environment where reducing travel costs provides a short-term return.
In Gartner-speak we have moved from the Peak of Inflated Expectations and are currently climbing out of the Trough of Disillusionment towards the Slope of Enlightenment. Or, put another way: we have moved from the early adoption stage to mainstream, where the technology is subject to much more rigorous ROI analysis. Reflecting this is a shift in the vendor focus from infrastructure to IP applications and business drivers such as productivity and customer service.
As telcos increasingly move to IP-based circuits, a conversation noted by Fred Knight of Business Communications Review is becoming convincing: -Over coffee towards the end of the show [BCR's VoiceCon2002], my colleague Sandy Borthick and I were discussing this new 'reality', and Sandy came up with a historical analogy that seemed reasonable. She said 'think token ring', which also had a huge and loyal installed base within the largest enterprises in the world. But token ring and its star topology was first surrounded, then encapsulated, and finally rendered irrelevant by Ethernet- and TCP-IP-based solutions. Sandy wondered whether circuit-switched voice was about to suffer the same fate."
On a different note, Gartner predicts a weakening in the security sector globally, which (at least in the Asia-Pacific region) is at odds with what we're seeing. Security has become an integral part of any network deployment. In fact, it is getting harder to separate core networking from security when implementing a network, especially with front-line defence infrastructure (such as firewalls).
At the same time, there is more awareness of the need for a holistic approach to security, encompassing detection and response. Security growth should continue to be strong in the next few years, especially in managed security services, vulnerability assessments, and security management technologies that take security a step beyond the firewall. Eventually these different security technologies will merge into a single platform, integrated into the core network, that integrates firewall, intrusion detection, and management capabilities.
Wireless is another technology that will experience rapid growth in the next five years. Currently lacking a strong business case for many organisations, a number of developments are converging that will drive progress in this area. Intel has announced a new mobile technology platform (Centrino) which incorporates wireless connectivity, and a number of notebook manufacturers already provide wireless-enabled notebooks. The deployment of GPRS and 3G data services will provide faster, ubiquitous access for networks, while wireless LAN costs decrease further. An increasing number of handheld organisers will offer integrated wireless technologies. And the number of wireless hotspots will grow (undoubtedly slower in Australia than in the US and Asia due to our comparatively sparse population) fuelled by a growing base of wireless-equipped users.
The soft growth in the economy will, at least for the next year or two, also continue to influence IT spending and delay larger or riskier projects. However, IP telephony, security and wireless are three technologies that demonstrate real value or return on investment, and spending on these will accelerate over the forseeable future.
Oliver Descoedures is marketing manager at network IP/Internet network infrastructure builder and solutions provider NetStar Australia. He can be contacted at marketing@netstarnetworks.com or on 02 9805 9759.
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