What happened to WiMax's American dream?

"At some point the carriers will have to make a forklift upgrade to get to the next level," he said. "And WiMax provides the capacity and efficiencies that make it a good choice for their networks."

Indeed, experts say that the 3G wireless networks carriers around the globe spent billions of dollars building are insufficient to handle a flood of wireless data traffic that could be generated from wireless enabled-consumer electronics products such as gaming devices, digital cameras, iPods, and navigation devices.

"3G was designed for voice," said Philip Solis, an analyst with ABI Research. "Right now a single 3G cell site barely supports a half dozen people transmitting data at the same time. WiMax offers much better capacity, which will be essential when people start using more data-intensive applications over wireless."

Solis predicts that 45 million people in North America will use mobile WiMax in 2012, with 200 million using it worldwide in 2012.

But the true fate of WiMax, at least in the US, is most likely in the hands of Wall Street investors.

Sprint has already committed itself to spending $5 billion through 2010 to build its network. The company reiterated its position on Friday. But since the ousting of its CEO Gary Forsee, the company has come under pressure to focus on its core wireless business, which has been steadily losing customers. Some experts speculate that Sprint will spin off its WiMax division, but the uncertainty surrounding the network could slow deployment.

Clearwire also said it's committed to continuing to build its WiMax network, but the company, which reported that its third-quarter net loss widened to US$329 million from US$60 million a year earlier, may not be able to afford to build the network. In fact, the company admitted that its business plan will require it to "raise substantial additional financing both in the near term and over the next five years or more".

And without enough money backing the deployments, WiMax could easily fade into obscurity as other technologies come of age. WiMax is just one of several technologies based on something called OFDM. Like WiMax, these other technologies -- Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB) -- also deliver faster speeds and fatter data pipes.

Like WiMax, each technology requires operators to build entirely new networks. To date, WiMax is the only one that has been standardised, which has given it a leg up.

Sprint's announcement a year ago helped cement WiMax's place at the table. The technology got a further boost when large technology companies like Intel and Motorola threw their weight behind it.

While LTE and UMB products aren't expected on the market until at least 2012, Intel will introduce its next generation Centrino chips for laptops that will have WiMax built into them in the second half of 2008. Several laptop makers including Toshiba, Lenovo and Panasonic, have already agreed to use the new WiMax-enabled chips.

WiMax was further pushed toward legitimacy earlier this year when it was approved by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as a 4G radio technology, paving the way for more adoption of the technology throughout the world. And Cisco, the world's largest IP networking company in the world, gave its own nudge of confidence when it announced its purchase of Navini.

"WiMax is a very good technology," said Farpoint's Mathias. "But it's competing with a lot of other technologies. Right now, 3G works fine. And there are a bunch of other 4G technologies that are also coming on the scene. So will WiMax survive? Yes, I believe it will, but its success has never been a slam dunk."

Talkback 2 comments

    Wi-Fi and Wi-Max Richard O'Sullivan -- 07/12/07

    There is a company in California with representation in Australia called Tropos. Tropos provided in-car communications to the San Mateo Poiice Force and has wireless penetration into many cities throughout the world. Perhaps any detractors might care to have a look at its site. It can do sensor interfacing to vehicular traffic systems and can even host wireless CCTV. It can also expand the range of GSM. It's worth looking at.

    Wi-Fi and WiMAX Anthony Wong -- 10/12/07 (in reply to #320091165)

    One of the important considerations for using Wi-Fi is that there are over 300 million Wi-Fi enabled devices in the world today, from laptops to PDAs, smartphones to video surveillance cameras. WiMAX will get there eventually but how many WiMAX enabled end devices are there TODAY?

Add your opinion

Sponsored content

Power Centre - Content from our premier sponsors

Blogs

Tags

Back to top

Featured