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Google Wave's hype has already gone

By Renai LeMay, ZDNet.com.au on January 5th, 2010

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gartner, google, google wave, rasmussen, hype cycle

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Renai LeMay

ZDNet.com.au
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Renai LeMay
(Credit: CBS Interactive)

commentary Has it really only been four months since Google opened Wave to the public, inspiring hundreds of thousands of people to sign up? It feels like a lot longer.

That's because it only took half that time for the monumental amount of hype around Google Wave — which had steadily built over the previous six months like a snowball rolling down a massive internet slope — to dissipate as early adopters realised they couldn't figure out just what Google Wave was supposed to be used for.

These sentiments from ClickZ's Sean Carton pretty much sum up the way many people feel about Google Wave at the moment:

I desperately want to use Wave for something useful ... But for the life of me I can't figure out what I'd do with it in a real-world situation. Maybe I just don't 'get it' (which could be entirely possible), but Google needs to do a much better job providing scenarios for us dimwits who don't have time to experiment with new software.


Most of my contacts on Twitter are early adopters of technology located in Australia — they typically work in either the technology or media sectors.

It is revealing that even this community, when quizzed with a quick straw poll this morning, generally confessed they only logged into Google Wave occasionally, and couldn't really figure it out. If even early adopters are confused about Google Wave, how must the general public see it?

Actually, we know that also. ZDNet.com.au sent our intern Colin Ho out to ask the general public about Google Wave recently. Most people had never even heard of it.

Kind of disappointing for the search giant — which has built its Apple-like reputation on launching awesome products that people will kill to get invites for. Think Gmail when it first launched. Or even Google Chrome, which is steadily gaining browser share. Or the Android mobile platform.

But, it's not all bad news for Google.

Some of my followers are using Wave intensely, daily, to collaborate internally on software development projects, or just to aid in jointly creating documents.

And admittedly, much of Google's own focus in releasing Wave for public consumption so early has been to court developers to start building applications that interact with the application programming interfaces that Google has published for Wave.

Much of Google's own focus in releasing Wave for public consumption so early has been to court developers

To this end, the search giant has had several members of its Sydney-based Wave team on a global tour of, as the Google Wave Developer Blog puts it, "15 days, eight countries and zillions of developers", to educate the coding masses about how they can take advantage of the newest Google baby.

As the blog makes clear, the Wave team has had some early wins. For example, the Global Youth Panel has requested 1000 Wave accounts to debate climate change. It would be fascinating to see how effective Wave is as a tool to aid with that kind of mass debate.

In addition, as I noted in October, the ideas behind Google Wave are sound. We do need to move on from email to better and more integrated communications platforms. The continual rise of social networking giant Twitter (and its corporate sibling, Yammer) clearly demonstrates this.

But by and large Google Wave has so far failed to address this need. It has currently entered what Gartner terms "the Trough of Disillusionment", the stage of the IT analyst firm's famous Hype Cycle characterised by technologies failing to meet expectations and becoming unfashionable.

The big question for Google Wave is whether the technology will achieve sufficiently widespread adoption to ensure slow but steady growth and improvement in the product, or whether it will steadily turn downhill and be forgotten by history entirely.

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Talkback

"its Apple-like reputation"

That's a bit uncalled for, isn't it Renai?

What's Google ever done to you to deserve that kind of snide comment?

AnonymousAnonymous January 5th, 2010
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Joking

I hope you're joking!

Apple and Google both have a great reputation amongst their customers!

People always get really excited when they bring out new products.

There was no snideness intended there.

Cheers,

Renai LeMay
News Editor
ZDNet.com.au

Renai LeMayRenai LeMay January 5th, 2010
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Maybe a little facetious, but then...

There are a lot of blinkered Applephiles that overlook it's shoddy/evil business practices such as crushing anyone that attempts to liberate Apple hardware; running people out of business through litigation costs; charging exorbitant prices for unremarkable hardware and software (it looks good so it must be better mentality reigns) etc etc.

I'm not saying Google are perfect, but I'd trust them not to screw me over in the same way Apple does. That's the reputation I'm talking about...

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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Maybe

"I'm not saying Google are perfect, but I'd trust them not to screw me over in the same way Apple does. That's the reputation I'm talking about..."

Due to my dislike for the business practices of both Google and Apple I must admit that I interpreted the 'apple-like reputation' comment as a critical viewpoint.

It is all how one looks at the overall picture. Don't forget that Google has run just as many upstarts out of town through the courts as Apple. Both of them are notorious for vexatious enforcement of intellectual property and other matters they hold dear, a bit like how Rotten Ronnie sues everyone who says in public that Big Macs taste bland.

Mel SommersbergMel Sommersberg January 6th, 2010
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wave goodbye :-)

the problem is the initial concept.

corporations and people are not interested in on-line collaboration - they just cant get their minds around it.

no use building a tool that nobody wants to use

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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We want it!

I'm running a server at work, I'll be using the stand alone web interface as soon as it's stable.

Hell, the people in my company that pushed the use of a twiki (which is now a backbone for the company) are all using gwave quietly on the side even though it breaks regulations about information outside the company!

We want it, don't mistake that!

AnonymousAnonymous January 13th, 2010
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it's still in preview

so much hype, but the service is not even open to the public yet...

"Google Wave is currently in a limited preview."

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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An email replacement

Is that really what we need?

I'd agree that something which enhances discussions currently taking place via email would be good - wait, that's Wave. But much of the email that I send and receive isn't the kind of communication which would benefit from a visible flow showing "he said", "she said". It's light and discardable, and ends up in trash within 24 hrs.

OTOH, I'm using Wave as a software design discussion forum ATM - well, sort of. The guy I report to told me not to put discussions into Wave, just conclusions after we've had external email discussions!

Why not use a Wiki then?

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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Signs point to disaster

Why would Google send key Wave personnel on an international tour for a beta product that's supposed to boost internet collaboration?

That sounds like desperation for a product that's not atttracting the support Google wants.

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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Wave in need of mainstream users

I have had a Google Wave account since the first beta was released but I don't use it as I have no friends that use it. They all use Twitter or Facebook. I would imagine though as a tool to manage software development it could become quite useful.

I suspect though only a small percentage of internet savvy users will have any real use for it. It really needs a purpose for the common man to achieve lasting popularity.

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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I think that Wave is a failure

I got all excited about Wave. I am an early adopter and I am a software developer. I even came up with an ambitioous concept built on top of Wave and took off educating myself on the technologies I would need.

Then I got wave and I realized that the reality wasn't what I had dreamed it was. The very premise behind Wave is neither a new idea nor a good one - that a web-based conversation textual conversation has to be totally live. While that can be switched off (in theory), too much of the thinking at Google has revolved around trying to create a large unstructured conversation. The result is a mess.

Maybe our brains work as vast webs of interconnected neurons firing here, there, and everywhere, but a web-based conversation that works like that is impossible for even the smartest person to follow. Yes, current email, IM, and group chat leave a lot to be desired, but Wave's approach is not even close to being the correct solution.

I think that Google Wave is going to be lesson that Google must learn to curb their growing arrogance.

AnonymousAnonymous January 6th, 2010
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I can see uses, but Google need to target it better

Unlike some others I can see great potential for Wave. I don't think it's particularly needed for personal collaboration (eg: a substitute or addon to Twitter, email, blogs etc) - plenty of tools out there now. Where I can see an impact is within organisations which utilise virtual teams - eg: for business development, product/software design, policymaking etc. An organisation I once worked for which does this sort of thing globally could find it very useful. But the problem comes in getting organisations to adopt such a product, especially in its current beta form. Few will experiment - who has time? Google should try targeting the beta for use by groups of ten or more people within specific organisations. Right now all they seem to be trying to do is generate buzz... but it soon becomes apparent to individuals that there's little they can do with it if they can't rope their friends into using it too. Another thing that could help Google find a market is if Wave includes a facility to find like-minded people who already have a Wave account and are, like some of us, itching to see what it can do if only we can find someone else.

AnonymousAnonymous January 11th, 2010
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Been Where Google Wave has been before

I have been where Google Wave has gone before. I was a part of a marketing organization responsible for selling an idea cooked up within my company that collaboration should be more concurrent. The ideas were remarkably similar to Google Wave - everyone participating in design documents at once.

We generated hype - lots of it and our product was eagerly anticipated. It was a fun time because the entire CAD world was watching. Then the product got into the hand of users and they collectively did a "What the f###!". Nobody could understand the ideas dreamed up in our ivory tower - otherwise known as Building 3.

Our "trough of disillusionment" was really tough. We had been the industry leader in our CAD field. We lost that position forever and our reputation was trashed. Our products were all tarnished and many people were let go. While the company survived, it has muddled along ever since.

The lesson for me was that marketing hype should never be a substitute for good engineering. And engineers should always understand the application of what they are building.

AnonymousAnonymous January 13th, 2010
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Waving Happily

Here's a link to an article (not mine) describing a productive and slightly more positive Wave experience: http://bit.ly/4Jy9Eq

Collin Van UdenCollin Van Uden January 14th, 2010
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email integration

Two related points about Wave:
1. I only have a few friends who use it.
2. To make it worth my effort to use it needs to integrate with email. So that I can mail people waves and wave people mails (if you know what I mean) from within the same application.

It can only gradually merge and supplant the existing technology. It will never take over by revolution.

Digital Trotskyism?

Stephen HendersonStephen Henderson January 15th, 2010
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